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Bigger Picture – Page 126 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s “ineffectual pessimism” completed its recovery by gapping up Wednesday to test Monday’s 1.2450 high. Closing any higher would confirm the rally had resumed, targeting 1.2510-1.2535.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to gap up Wednesday at fresh recovery highs only ranged sideways intraday, which is still enough to maintain the minimum upside objectives at 1361.00-1364.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight after Tuesday had already filled the gap back up to 16.80 was improved overnight to gap up Wednesday and extend through 17.25, confirming the upside momentum remains intact, next targeting 17.37 and 17.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was too shallow to yet invalidate the corrective bounce targeting 146-10, which was attacked to within a quarter-point Tuesday. But extending down through the noon hour did test the 145-04 sell signal whose break would start to signal a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Coverage has rolled forward to Jun, trading at a 10-cent discount from May] Tuesday’s last-minute trigger of downtrending pivotal resistance was extended overnight to gap up Wednesday, filling the gap back up to Friday’s 67.20 close. Extending through 67.60 confirms the rally is now targeting 69.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday started by still testing the 2.75 bounce limit, which keeps alive the potential for fresh lows down to 2.52. A post-open bounce up to 2.79 was retraced back down to 2.75, maintaining the distributive pattern.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Apr 19, 2018

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar has high-profile and reliably influential items. And any obvious reaction to either pre-open report is likely to be duplicated in reaction to post-open reports.

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET

*Randal Quarles Speaks
9:30 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

5-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down probed the gap between Friday’s highs and Monday’s lows, there being a gap in between. Back above 1.2435 would resume the rally targeting 1.2510 and 1.2535..

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was recovered Tuesday morning to firm back above 1347.25 and keep alive the recovery attempt, targeting a retest of 1361.00-1364.00, so long as 1344.00 now holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness held above 16.55 to maintain upside momentum, before reversing up Tuesday morning to fulfill the retest of 16.80. The recovery has no requirement to extend, but closing higher Wednesday would all but confirm a bigger rally underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding 145-04 support at Monday’s gap down had recovered to fill the gap back up to Friday’s close, but Tuesday extended the recovery to 146-00, still likely to test at least 146-10 as a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A slightly lower low at 65.60 Tuesday was recovered to fluctuate narrowly around unchanged, not yet reversing the pullback that still has room down to 65.25 before threatening not to resume the rally soon.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating around the 2.75 bounce limit Tuesday keeps alive the potential for resolving down and resuming the decline, although the delay itself could become bullish Wednesday.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 18, 2018

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: The afternoon’s Fed speaker already makes an appearance before the open, so his later comments shouldn’t be surprising. A reaction to the first appearance might influence price action into the afternoon. The afternoon’s Beige Book tends more often to inhibit price action ahead of it than to trigger a reaction after it.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

William Dudley Speaks
8:30 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET

*William Dudley Speaks
3:15 PM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The gap back up to last Wednesday’s 1.2430 close was filled by Monday’s gap up, which extended to 1.2450. The extension was retraced back down to 1.2430, which must hold as support to maintain the rally’s potential for extending to 1.2480 and 1.2535.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s firming extended coming out of the weekend as Monday morning tested 1353.50. Just closing above 1344.00-1347.25 maintains the 1361.00-1364.00 objective.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A retest of 16.80 was all but completed by Monday morning’s extension of Friday’s bounce back above 16.50-16.55 testing 16.77.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s dip to the 145-04 pullback limit had only firmed intraday, and already probed lower into Monday’s 144-24 open without correcting first to 146-10. Monday’s gap down to 144-24 reacted up to unchanged, keeping alive the corrective bounce potential and its 146-10 target.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s fresh high at 67.65 was probed by a dime Sunday night and then reversed down intraday to test 66.15, all still fluctuating around 66.88 without yet putting into play 69.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap up to 2.75 was probed Monday up to 2.78, then reversed back down to 2.75, which must hold to remain only a temporary corrective bounce.