Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s probe under the 1.2390 pullback limit tested the 1.2340 sell signal down to 1.2300, then recovered to the 1.2340 signal. Recovering the 1.2390 pullback limit could serve as a buy signal at this stage.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite recovering Thursday’s test of 1344.50 back above 1347.25, Friday dipped deeper to test 1337.00. Buyers lose traction by closing under 1344.50, which must be recovered Monday morning to isolate Friday’s dip.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping overnight to test 17.05 was recovered into the open. Friday’s session spent exclusively in negative territory without extending down qualifies as “ineffectual pessimism” which would make any initial strength Monday bullish.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only a very brief, shallow bounce preceded Friday’s extension down to 143-04, 20 ticks under Thursday’s  close but less dramatic than was possible following Thursday’s deep drop. Regardless, the requirement for at least a third lower close is fulfulled.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping Friday to 67.50 was recovered to test Wednesday’s 68.45  high. Closing above it could have signaled the pullback from 69.50 had ended. Extending higher Monday would now require gapping up, or else the reaction down is likely to extend.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s break under 2.70 wasn’t rejected Friday, but it was retraced, almost back up to 2.75 resistance. The break remains valid and in-play, so long as 2.75 isn’t recovered, and likely to resolve down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday didn’t show any interest in doing what Wednesday failed to do, exceeding through the 1.24355 buy signal. And so it reacted down again back to 1.2390, which should recover without delay if the pattern still intends to resolve up. A deeper pullback could still test 1.2335 before reversing the trend down, but that would likely be only a formality.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s dip to 1344.00 held and recovered back above 1347.25 to keep alive the attraction above to 1361.00-1364.00. Any lower close would invalidate the pattern’s accumulative features and almost reverse the trend down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Essentially testing the rally’s first objective at 17.37 Thursday held as resistance for a shallow intraday reaction down to attack 17.05 as support. Closing any lower would undermine the upside momentum, which otherwise is next targeting 17.65.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Apparently satisfied with a straight 61.8% retracement that stopped short of its 146-10 potential, the pattern’s reversal down extend Wednesday’s 145-04 sell signal to fresh lows at 143-12. Closing under 143-22 would signal the decline is likely to extend without delay, but closing above 143-22 allows for a corrective bounce.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher without delay tested the 69.50 target before Thursday’s regular open, but not intraday which reacted to pierce under Wednesday’s highs down to 68.15. A second consecutive higher close would have put into play an eventual third higher close or more. Failing to produce that setup, while also fulfilling the pattern’s buying pressure, introduces vulnerability to reversing down with little warning.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ongoing distributive behavior in testing the 2.75 bounce limit finally reacted down to test the 2.70 sell signal Thursday. Its initial probe was retraced enough to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close. The balance of the session trended back down to fresh lows at 2.66. A second consecutive lower close for confirmation would be helpful, but neutralizing the attraction above is already helpful to reversing the trend back down.