Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Apr 11, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Zuckerberg is slated to return for a second day of congressional testimony. Did day-one provide a distraction that sucked out market volatility? Or, are the fireworks already spent, leaving only the boredom and ennui of congressional hearings that our grandparents used to describe around Sunday dinner? Meanwhile, any noticeable reaction to the pre-open CPI is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports, including the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Monday extended to test the 1.2390 buy signal. Closing back under 1.2340 would reject the recovery attempt. It would become a pullback limit if the buy signal triggers first, which would target 1.2480-1.2510.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slightly weaker action Sunday night was recovered into the open to range narrowly unchanged Monday. Resistance at 1339.00 was probed late in the day, which must be rejected with little if any delay Tuesday to maintain the pattern’s downside potential.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday initially ranged flat-to-higher around 16.40 resistance before extending to attack 16.55 into the afternoon. Just closing above 16.40 invalidates the close under it that was awaiting a second consecutive lower close to confirm. Closing above 16.55 would essentially signal the trend reversing up again.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s unimpressive reaction to the Employment Situation report didn’t look any better Sunday night, or Monday which ranged narrowly flat-to-lower. None of which yet invalidates the attraction to fill the gap back up to last Monday’s 146-26 close.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back up above the 62.62 pullback limit Monday extended only slightly higher intraday, but keeps alive potential for closing even higher Tuesday to signal the pullback has ended and that 66.88 is back in-play.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Collapsing at Monday’s open from 2.70 fell to within 2 cents of retesting the 2.62 prior low. Consolidating there resolved back up to test 2.70. Closing higher Tuesday would have to get a benefit of the doubt for being able to avoid fresh lows before rallying to fresh highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Traders love a spectacle, including high-profile congressional hearings. Zuckerberg testifying on Tuesday could distract their attention, and calm the market’s recent volatility.
Robert Kaplan Speaks
4:30 AM ET
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/7/18) …Volatility, distractions, and Bitcoin.
Last week’s volatility wasn’t isolated to intraday action, as it included at least two sizable overnight plunges. The same could be said for the drop coming out of January’s highs. One difference is that last week’s volatility all developed within an established range, while the previous occasion trended down. At first, the difference is surprising, especially having experienced it first hand. But then it is glaring — and it is glaringly different from the tariff war headlines and mainstream media concerns.
Volatile trending and volatile ranging. Does the difference between them mean different resolutions? Not necessarily. Those characteristics really speak more to timing and paths, and less to ultimate direction. Similar to trending having paused, traders’ curiosity at this week’s Facebook vs. Congress hearings could put volatility on pause, too. In this weekend’s Saturday Review, we discuss the market’s possible paths and their likely resolutions, detailing the elements that suggest either.
Bitcoin: We didn’t get to this chart, which I think is timely. My $6,600 support has been thoroughly tested. One potential consolidation it supported had broken yesterday to probe a slightly lower low. Now that break is being retraced back up to the consolidation’s $6.900 upper-end. More important, the retracement was done by surging, symmetrical to the break lower. So long as fresh lows are avoided, this pattern suggests that a bottom is forming, at least for a sizable correction back up to $8,400.
Following are three videos I produced showing specific setups that had guided us in anticipating a specific resolution this week. (Originally published in the Roadmap blog):
– Reaction limit examples –
– Noon hour reaction limit head-fake –
– Overnight pattern (Triangle false break) into intraday –
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WB, BIDU, MU, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, BA, CAT, FB, ARNA
transcript
—————– (04/07/2018 09:32) —————–
Bill G: gm
—————– (04/07/2018 09:33) —————–
Bill G: good
—————– (04/07/2018 10:00) —————–
ljr: stocks: WB, BIDU, Nvda, TSLA. I’ll watch recording. thx
—————– (04/07/2018 10:02) —————–
David B: MU,AMZN
—————– (04/07/2018 10:18) —————–
David B: BA,CAT
—————– (04/07/2018 10:39) —————–
ljr: question about timing Windows:
ljr: breaks higher or lower
David B: Thanks
ljr: during them are valid?
ljr: one more sentance
ljr: but what about tries outside of those windows
ljr: sorry typing on a phone
ljr: ie a break at 11:15-12
ljr: ah. mIntaine d at end of window.
ljr: got it
ljr: thx
Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!