Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A slightly lower low overnight was retraced into Friday’s Employment Situation report, where Friday morning extended back up above Thursday’s highs. Consolidating pessimistically short of the gap back to Wednesday’s 1.2350 gap is potentially bullish from a contarian perspective.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh lows overnight under 1323.00 was reversed up Friday morning to test 1339.00 resistance. Holding its test instead of being recovered to reverse momentum up does soften the bullishness of having held the earlier test of support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially extending Thursday’s bounce up to 16.50 Friday morning, the pattern reacted back down under 16.50 to maintain the recent break’s momentum. But the pattern can’t tolerate much if any further delay in confirming fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
This week’s pullback to the 145-00 area had essentially dipped as deeply as possible without reversing momentum down. From that perspective, bouncing up to 146-00 seems a little shallow for the reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. The gap back up to Monday’s 146-26 close is still in-play.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday still failed to extend above the gap back to Tuesday’s 63.45 close, remaining vulnerable to reversing back down. Friday did reverse back down, retesting Wednesday’s 62.10 low. Closing under 62.62 won’t tolerate much if any further delay in resuming the rally through 64.25 to reinstate the 66.88 target.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s bounce back up to 2.70 is much too shallow to reverse momentum up, and keeps alive the ongoing pullback targeting a retest of 2.62 down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s bounce was formally rejected by Thursday’s gap down which probed deeper intraday. Any lower close would confirm the trend remains down. Only ranging sideways Friday would be more difficult to extend.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness enabled a gap down Thursday to 1332.00, filling the gap back to Tuesday’s close. Closing lower Friday would reinstate the downleg targeting 1295.00 and lower.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower to 16.15 Thursday morning reacted back up into positive territory, attacking 16.40 whose recovery would undermine the week’s drop, and avoiding a lower close Thursday that would have confirmed the trend already reversing down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for the pullback to extend down to the 145-00 area was exploited already overnight down to 144-27, which was retested later Thursday morning. So, price has reversed as much as is possible without yet reversing momentum down, just ahead of a reliable catalyst in Friday’s Employment Situation report. Notwithstanding an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down, not yet reversing back up Friday would suggest the pullback is extending much more deeply.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s recovery had only filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, without closing higher to confirm momentum had reversed up. Thursday’s fluctuation around Wednesday and Tuesday’s close doesn’t yet make the pattern any less vulnerable to retesting the 62.62 pullback limit. But any early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend, confirmed by closing above 64.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of weakness, and its reaction down back to 2.65 still needs a second consecutive lower close on Friday to be reliable as the downleg that retests the recent 2.62 low down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s reaction up held a test of 1.2365 whose recovery would reverse momentum up, and leave no unfinished business below since Tuesday’s fresh low close already fulfilled it. The trend otherwise remains down.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to retest 1348.00 up to 1352.50 was reversed back down to 1339.00, whose break would start to signal the recent rally had failed and momentum is reversing down. Not following-through Thursday could marginalize sellers to allow another rally leg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up slightly was reversed back down to and through 16.40 to 16.28. A second consecutive lower close on Thursday would confirm the recent rally had failed, and that fresh lows are in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The gap back up to Monday’s 146-26 close was only attacked Wednesday up to 146-18 before testing Tuesday’s lows down to 145-18. A pullback still has room down to the 145-00 area while still being likely to recover and at least fill the gap back to 146-26 .

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s gap down under 62.50 and test of 62.05 doesn’t require being retested, despite being left outstanding after recovering back above the 62.62 pullback limit. Having said that, only filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s ~63.45 close without closing higher can’t afford to hesitate extending the recovery Thursday.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending the bounce back above 2.70 to 2.74 was retraced a little before Wednesday’s close, enough to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but not to be in a position of weakness.