Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s break extended down Thursday to 1.2355, and a second consecutive lower close confirms the 1.2445 sell signal, and its potential down to 1.2245, or at least to produce one more lower close.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun, which trades at a 3.50 premium to Apr]… Not exploiting Wednesday’s closing test of 1329.00 support doesn’t prevent rallying out of the weekend, and eventually filling the gap outstanding from Monday’s 1360.00 close. But it does all but require exiting the weekend in rally mode.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s flat and narrow ranging didn’t reject Wednesday’s break under 16.40. But neither did it confirm the break. The sell signal remains valid so long as it a reaction up doesn’t recover 16.50.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Interim weakness easily held its pullback limit for fresh highs Thursday testing 146-23. The trend remains up so long as 146-02 now holds as support. But there is no requirement for another higher close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A brief deeper dip to 63.60 still recovered back up to the 64.64 pullback limit Thursday, and then extended higher to probe 65.00, still targeting 66.88.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight into Thursday’s gap up wasn’t rejected intraday. Its probe above 2.70 resistance touched 2.76. Having probed above the optimal bounce limit. Aggressively resuming the decline is the most credible path down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After gapping down at the open, Tuesday’s close had recovered back up to Monday’s lows. Still overlapping Monday’s lower-end kept alive potential for filling the gap at its upper-end. Flat overnight ranging nevertheless resolved down sharply through Wednesday’s open. And it extended down into the afternoon testing 1.2385. A second consecutive lower close under 1.2445 Thursday would reverse the trend down. Otherwise, closing back above 1.2445 and preferably higher would end the corrective dip.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Tuesday had managed to close at or above 1341.00 support. Wednesday broke lower to test the next two supports at 1335.50 and 1325.50. That’s a lot of selling pressure to expend between closes, which doesn’t gain traction for the effort. Closing back above 1335.50 would signal that the pullback had ended. Otherwise, closing lower Thursday would all but reinstate 1291.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing at 16.50 Tuesday avoided triggering its sell signal there, and also required breaking under 16.40 for confirmation. Wednesday did trend down, probing under 16.40 to 16.25. A bounce has room up to 16.50 but closing back above 16.55 would signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s break above 145-04 extended higher Wednesday morning to 146-10. Reacting down intraday to 145-28 still has room to 145-16 without invalidating the upside momentum.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Hovering for a couple of days at the highs doesn’t invalidate upside momentum, but it does suggest that extending higher requires a pullback before extending to the 66.88 target. Wednesday’s dip tested the 64.64 pullback limit down to  63.70. Closing back above 64.64 would be optimal for isolating the test, or at least rallying early Thursday.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuedsay’s recovery to 2.70-2.71 resistance didn’t extend higher Wednesday,  keeping alive the likelihood that its corrective bounce is ending and that the 2.62 low will be broken more aggressively on the way down to 2.52.