Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s close above 1.2515 prior highs was almost rejected by Tuesday’s gap down under the 1.2480 prior low. But that created a gap back up to Monday’s 1.2530 close, and recovering to close above 1.2480 remains in proximity to filling the gap back up to Monday’s close. Otherwise, closing under 1.2445 would trigger a much deeper reversal down.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
It’s premature for gapping down Tuesday to reverse the past week’s rally. That has only created a gap back up to Monday’s 1354.50 close that will want to be filled. However, filling the gap above near-term would remain likely so long as 1341.00 now holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above 16.65 Monday still needs to recover 16.80 to confirm a new uptrend underway. But like past recent recovery attempts, the upside attempt has been met by gapping down. A sell signal is premature, but not recovering 16.65 Wednesday would start to suggest the next significant leg is down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another overnight probe under 144-22 — which was a little simpler since Monday’s close was still overlapping it — was followed by another recovery back into the 144-22/145-04 range. Closing beyond either end of the range is likely to extend in that direction, and that resolution is still likelier to be up.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday and Tuesday’s sessions have both ranged narrowly, and both blipped-up momentarily to attack or to pierce 66.00. Not already rejecting the fresh highs makes higher highs likely, presumably to fulfill the next higher objective outstanding at 66.88.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The bounce from fulfilling the 2.62 objective extended Tuesday to test 2.70, which is essentially the bounce limit to maintain the downside momentum that is otherwise next targeting 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s close above the 1.2410-1.2425 bounce limit had coincided with downtrending resistance. Monday’s open gapped up through it and trended sharply higher intraday to 1.2535. Upside momentum remains intact so long as 1.2480 holds as support.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night resolved up Monday to probe fresh recovery highs at 1358.00 filled the 5-week old gap at 1354.00. Momentum remains up so long as 1347.00 now holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday was initially resisted by Friday’s test of 16.65, but it eventually broke higher. Its reaction down held 16.65 as support to maintain the rally’s momentum.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Recovering to close back above 144-22 again Monday after Sunday night’s retest of Friday’s lows further suggests that the 144-22/145-04 range’s upper-end will still be broken before a durable break lower can develop.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday already fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for an eventual higher close. The upside momentum next targeting 64.88 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 64.64 as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The long-awaited 2.62 target was finally touched Friday, and its shallow reaction up extended Monday to 2.67. This should be the bounce’s peak before resuming the decline to 2.52, which remains likely since so much optimism preceded the eventual first objective’s test.