Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday above the 1.2410 bounce limit that had held Thursday, was extended intraday to 1.2445 where closing any higher would target the gap above at 1.2460. Back under 1.2390 would resume the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1325.50 as support Thursday allowed trending higher overnight to probe Wednesday’s FOMC reaction high. Gapping up Friday above the prior 5 weeks’ highs is now targeting a gap fill at 1355.00-1357.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback to 16.40 was still being tested through the close, so not necessarily recovered. Firming overnight extended intraday to pierce Wednesday’s post-FOMC peak at 16.65 resistance.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 144-22 rock and 145-04 hard place was trying to break lower into Friday’s open. Gapping down to 144-06 was recovered back into the range, pausing pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Thursday’s 144-28 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having held the 64.25 pullback limit Thursday, the rally could resume to fulfill its minimum requirement for at least one more higher close. Friday’s gap up extended to fresh highs testing 65.65, potentially fulfilling its minimum requirement.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The longstanding 2.62 objective was finally fulfilled by Friday’s gap down that extended slightly lower. Slightly lower, and then no lower, as the session ranged narrowly, hovering optimistically above 2.62. That behavior continues to suggest that 2.62 will be broken on the way down to 2.52.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding Wednesday’s bounce at the 1.2390-1.2410 bounce limit didn’t prevent probing higher overnight to test 1.2465. But that excess had disappeared by Thursday’s open, which extended back down intraday to 1.2365. Closing any lower would confirm the corrective bounce had ended, so long as 1.2390-1.2410 continues to hold as resistance.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Rallying ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC news and extending sharply higher after it as nonetheless retraced to test 1325.50 at Thursday’s low. At least closing back under it was needed to reinstate the downside momentum. Now closing back under 1319.00 is the nearest signal.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing sharply higher into and out of and after Wednesday’s FOM events was retraced back down Thursday to test 16.40 down to 16.33. Just closing under 16.55 prevents launching a new upleg, and allows another close under 16.40 to resume the decline.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ending Wednesday’s volatility at 143-16 continued to prevent sellers from gaining traction for their third consecutive daily effort. Gapping up more than 1 point Thursday through Monday’s 144-20 close was the consequence. It extended to probe last week’s 145-06 highs intraday, but the resistance held. Its reaction down to “lower prior highs” at 144-22 also held. Closing beyond either end of that range is likely to extend in that direction.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Confirming Tuesday’s breakout Wednesday now requires at least an eventual third higher close. Meanwhile, testing 65.00 created potential for reacting down. The 64.25 pullback limit was tested, with room down to 62.70 before undermining the near-term likelihood of resuming the rally to 66.85.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s reversal extended down slightly deeper Thursday. The behavior can’t yet be considered “ineffectual optimism” for approaching its 2.62 target with such a slow pace, but it doesn’t contradict the ongoing likelihood for breaking through it by at least a dime.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday was already retraced before Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s 1.2235 close. Perhaps neutralizing its attraction enabled the favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Surging to 1.2405 also tested the 1.2390 bounce limit, which held to continue suggesting the downside momentum remains intact. Closing above 1.2410 would suggest otherwise.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Stopping short of the actual 1305.00 low had bounced Tuesday, and firmed further Wednesday ahead of the FOMC policy statement, then extended even higher. The original 1325.50 sell signal was tested as resistance, and must be rejected without further delay to reinstate the downside momentum.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s bounce from fresh lows had not recovered relevant resistance, but Wednesday’s open gapped up and reacted favorably to the FOMC policy statement. Closing at or around 16.40 almost invalidates the downside momentum, which can be reinstated easily Thursday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
the knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC statement spiked up to 144-04 before collapsing to support at 143-04 down to 143-00. Closing under 143-16 would target 142-00, tentatively, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive lower close Thursday. Otherwise, recovering 144-04 Thursday would resume the rally.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher Wednesday to test 64.05 confirms Tuesday’s breakout close, next targeting 65.00 so long as 62.70 now holds as support.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Wednesday to test 2.73 was reversed back down to Monday’s lows under 2.66, and still presumably on the way down to 2.62 or lower.