Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s shallow gap down within Friday’s range didn’t resume Thursday’s steep drop, and only firmed back up to the 1.2345 sell signal that had triggered on Thursday.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was late to develop but produced a gap down Monday to the 1320.00 area. Its support has been chipped away enough to break lower Tuesday to confirm downside momentum remains intact. Otherwise, much more delay in extending down would suggest a retest of 1335.00 is likelier.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday to 16.50 and holding 16.55 as a bounce Monday doesn’t reinforce the open’s selling pressure. Reversing down now requires closing under 16.40 support which had been thoroughly tested and chipped away Friday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday afternoon’s 143-10 resistance was probed further throughout Monday, back up to 143-16 and 143-21 that had were never broken decisively. Almost any delay in another downleg Tuesday would be likely to test 144-06 resistance next.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An overnight test of 62.25 stopped short of testing the 62.50 buy signal. But the bearish pattern needed to decisively reverse back under the 61.35 bounce limit that Friday had recovered. Monday morning’s plunge to 60.67 tried, but the session ended back up at 61.35.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The two-day blip-up to 2.81 and two-day retracement back down to the blip-up’s 2.75 origin have defined a range of resistance. Monday’s gap up Monday pierced the upper-end, which ultimately held through the close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s drop from 1.2435 to 1.2280 was retraced Friday to attack the 1.2345 sell signal. The sell signal held as resistance, but no consecutive lower close means Thursday’s break isn’t yet confirmed as reversing the trend down.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Initially reacting down on Friday’s payrolls report attacked 1313.00, but the gap down to 1321.00 and the 1320.00 prior lows held their test as the morning recovered to test 1325.50 as resistance. Closing any higher would have combined with the support test to launch a new rally leg. The buy signal otherwise remains at 1335.00, and back under 1320.00 would still be bearish.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already testing 16.40 before Friday’s Employment Situation report was extended by its reaction, but then recovered back above Thursday’s highs to test 16.70, and to close above 16.55. Only closing under 16.40 would now trigger a new downleg, and closing above 16.75 would signal a rally underway.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s close at the 143-16 sell signal immediately resolved down Friday to test last Monday’s 142-24 low, stopping short of the 142-16 sell signal that is defined by ongoing downtrending support. Bouncing into the afternoon was still holding under the 143-16 sell signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday eventually surged through the 61.35 bounce limit to attack 62.00. The drop’s momentum is in jeopardy, and any immediate weakness Monday morning would be likely to compensate for the delay by retracing much or all of Friday’s rally.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip back down to 2.75 doesn’t yet begin to fulfill the downside objectives, but its second consecutive session decline is in-line with the likely reaction down from having blipped-up to 2.81. And the delay in breaking lower is becoming an “ineffectual optimism” that makes more selling likely to be aggressive.