Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A blip-up in reaction to Thursday’s ECB policy statement pierced 1.2435 resistance up to 1.2450 before reversing down sharply through the 1.2345 sell signal to attack 1.2305. A second consecutive lower close would confirm the bounce had been reversed down to target fresh lows.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight only resolved down under 1325.50 into and through Thursday morning. The gap back to Monday’s 1320.50 close was filled, so closing under it would help to confirm the reversal down is intact. Otherwise, closing back above 1325.50 would at least undermine the reversal attempt.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight strength was retraced back under 16.55, but only to resume testing 16.50 whose break would signal new lows in-play, confirmed under 16.40.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce touched parallel downtrending resistance that intersected at 144-00, reacting down to 143-16 which is now a sell signal in addition to 142-18. Not reversing down on Friday’s Employment Situation report would have room for noise up to 144-08, while still be vulnerable to resolving down sharply into a new downleg.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s late reaction up had held the intraday drop’s 61.35 bounce limit before ranging flat-to-lower overnight. Fresh lows Thursday morning tested 60.10, with a second consecutive lower close confirming Wednesday’s breakout under 62.25.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength wasn’t any likelier or more vulnerable to reacting down. Filling gaps below, if not also probing a fresh low, would help to form a more durable bottom. Reacting down from Tuesday and Wednesday’s confirmed breakout does suggest the position of strength will be used for launching a temporary dip to neutralize the attractions below.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Slightly higher highs overnight nevertheless retraced in time Wednesday to hold the 1.2435 resistance that had held its test one day earlier.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Attacking 1341.00 Tuesday without closing above 1335.50 had made the reversal attempt suspicious. Wednesday’s reversal maintains that suspicion, but closing back under 1325.00 would actually signal momentum reversing down.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s close above 16.75 was not optimal for reversing the trend up, but it got a benefit of the doubt if confirmed Wednesday. It wasn’t. Closing back under 16.55 invalidated it. Closing decisively under 16.50 would confirm that momentum has reversed down targeting fresh lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Downtrending resistance and Tuesday’s 143-22 high held their tests Wednesday, still having room up to 144-10 without yet reversing the trend up.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The knee-jerk reaction to API had probed probed under 62.25, but that was recovered into Wednesday’s open. Volatility into and out of the morning’s EIA report eventually extended down sharply to 60.60, back under the 61.35 bounce limit. If not rejected Thursday, then a new downleg is confirmed.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Trending up again overnight gapped up Wednesday to test 2.81 resistance. A single-session’s blip-up was likely to react down sharply. The two-session pattern remains vulnerable to reversing down, while greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.