Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing to higher prior lows at 1.2345 didn’t resolve down under 1.2300 to resume the decline, and instead extended to the next higher objective at 1.2430 Tuesday. There is no bearish reason for probing any higher before resuming the decline.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and trending higher Tuesday above 1331.00 and 1335.50 have started to signal a bigger bounce underway. Final confirmation above 1341.00 is only $1 higher. Regardless, the low’s Island pattern suggests the rally is only temporary.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up above 16.50-16.55 extended higher to close above 16.75. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would confirm 17.50 is in-play. Otherwise, back under 16.50 would signal the interim bounce had ended and that new lows under 16.25 are in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping to the 142-24 sell signal only reacted up to test 143-22, greeting Wednesday’s ADP report not from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending Monday’s bounce overnight to attack 63.30 was retraced back into negative territory Tuesday to test the 62.25 sell signal. Avoiding a second consecutive higher close above 61.35 has kept alive the potential for re-triggering 62.25 and resuming the original decline.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Relentless testing of 2.74 resistance finally broke higher, albeit short of 2.80 which is the limit for a blip-up to reverse down sharply on the way to at least temporarily probing fresh lows for a bottom to form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The corrective bounce including “higher prior lows” at 1.2345 was still being tested Monday, instead of yet reversing back under 1.2300 to signal momentum reversing back down.

Gold Apr Contract (jUN , ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s bounce up to 1329.00 was retraced before Monday’s open to hold under 1325.00, and to keep alive the potential for breaking lower to resume the decline.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs Sunday night tested 16.60 but was retraced to hold back under 16.50-16.55 resistance which continues to consider the bounce from testing 16.25 as only a temporary correction. Otherwise, closing above 16.55 would be vulnerable to extending higher aggressively.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Sunday night up to 144-05 and a shallower bounce after Monday’s open was reversed to probe under downtrending support down to 142-24, which is also a sell signal that intersects at 143-12. The trend reverses down if its break is maintained through the close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday and Friday’s tests of the 61.35 bounce limit didn’t hold Monday morning, which broke sharply higher through the 62.25 sell signal to test 62.80. There isn’t any specific bullish consequence to maintaining the recovery, although it would greatly undermine the near-term downside.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still ranging narrowly at the 2.75 high could trigger a probe of fresh low back under 2.71, or else by a temporary blip-up to 2.81.