Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Four consecutive narrowly ranging sessions had broken lower Tuesday. There was no bullish reason for returning to 2-1/2 week old prior lows. Extending lower Wednesday to a second consecutive lower close confirms at least an eventual third lower close is required.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing $10 Wednesday was largely retraced to remain within proximity of the 1312.50 sell signal whose break would target 1291.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce peaked within its 16.50-16.55 limit which held through the close to maintain the lower objective in-play at 16.25.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jun which trades at almost a 1-point discount from Mar]… Tuesday’s gap down to its 143-00 sell signal and ultimate intraday drop had neutralized a couple of lower gaps. Wednesday’s gap up to and through 143-00 firmed into the afternoon, but held the 143-12 bounce limit. The gap back down to last Wednesday’s 141-20 remains outstanding.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s close under the rally’s 63.45 pullback limit extended down Wednesday to fluctuate around the 62.25 sell signal. Still being tested through the close, closing under Wednesday’s 61.75 low Thursday would confirm a new downleg underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating narrowly Wednesday keeps alive the likelihood for a fresh low before a rally effort would be credible. That’s not necessarily greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, but neither is it a position of weakness, so recovering a fresh low would be likely to extend higher into and out of the weekend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Four sessions spent ranging around 1.2320 had already missed the earlier opportunity to reject the drop that began the ranging. Tuesday’s break lower to the two-week old 1.2235 prior low, which has no bullish reason to be retested.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rejecting Sunday night’s surge before Monday’s open, and then stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Friday’s close, had made fresh lows likely. Tuesday morning’s reaction to the new Fed chair’s testimony triggered a break under last week’s 1325.00 low, attacking the two-week old prior lows at 1313.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Breaking under 16.40 Tuesday puts into play a retest of the prior low at 16.15 and its gap outstanding there. Meanwhile, an intraday bounce can test 16.45 without reversing momentum up so long as the close is back under 16.40.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday under 143-30 only briefly blipped-down before bouncing 1 point to retest the 144-12 bounce limit as resistance. Its reaction down to fresh lows filled the gap back down to Thursday’s 143-06 close. Still outstanding is the gap back down to Wednesday’s 142-20 close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having fulfilled its minimum requirement for at least one more higher close on Monday, Tuesday’s dip under the 63.45 pullback limit. There’s still room down to 62.25 before triggering a reversal down that takes off the table a higher high up to 57.05.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to May, which trades at a 1-cent discount to Mar]… Still hovering under 2.69 keeps alive the likelihood of at least momentarily probing a fresh low under 2.54 before a recovery effort would be credible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s narrow fluctuation around 1.2320 for a fourth consecutive session further confirms the pattern has lost its momentum. But the delay in rejecting its prior week’s drop from 1.2530 also suggests that fresh lows are yet to come.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying Sunday night to attack 1343.00 barely managed to open at 1340.00 before sliding back under 1332.00. Stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 1330.50 close suggests fresh lows remain likely before any credible rally attempt. But closing back above 1335.00 might still get a benefit of the doubt for launching a new rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s initial surged to 16.72 held week-old resistance at an outstanding gap. Monday’s open was back at or under last week’s ~16.65 prior highs, and briefly pierced negative territory 20 cents lower. That filled the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing its attraction, so actually closing above 16.70 would be credible for launching the new upleg that Sunday night’s surge had tried.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up again Monday touched 144.27 before dipping back under 144-12, which must hold as resistance to continue being only a temporary corrective bounce. Closing back under 144-30 and 143-26 would be likely next to test 143-06 and 142-18.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher Monday to attack 64.25 was on-track to already fulfill the minimum third consecutive higher close required by Thursday’s confirmed breakout. Potential to 67.05 remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 63.45 as support.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s narrow ranging only further delays the likely probe of fresh lows under 2.55 that would likely not extend down, but which the pattern all but requires before any recovery effort can be credible.