Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is the busiest in some time. It’s also both high-profile and reliably influential to price action. Meanwhile, any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Durable Goods report is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports. New Fed Chair Powell gives his first semi-annual congressional testimony. His opening remarks may be released before the open, with notice, somewhat similar to Yellen’s first testimony which she surprised the market by lifting the embargo on her remarks when the stock market was opening.
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks [House]
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/24/18) …Another upleg? Watch your step.
The first Saturday Review in several weeks covered a lot of ground. It begins with a review of the price action that developed into early February’s low and its subsequent retest. Price action since then is tracked to understand the significant juncture that last week’s pullback and recovery have reached. And it’s all compared to the 1987 reversal pattern that is tracking with eerily similar timing and structure. All of which brings the market to a critical decision it will likely make this Monday or Tuesday, and the specific paths possible from there. Attendees offered insightful and helpful comments and questions, to which viewers of the video are welcome to add.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, TSLA, MU, SHOP, NFLX, AMAT, AMD
Rod David: Welcome to this weekend’s Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you. Thank you!
—————– (02/24/2018 09:36) —————–
David B: Good Morning
—————– (02/24/2018 09:56) —————–
Bill G: In 1987 when the spx made a lower high in early Oct the Nasdaq made a new high
—————– (02/24/2018 09:59) —————–
ljr ipad: would we expect a bear market if it follows the 87 analogy?
ljr ipad: similar to 2008?
Bill G: I’m talking about the current rally we are in
—————– (02/24/2018 10:05) —————–
Bill G: If we get a test of the low from a couple of weeks ago will not have the spt of the 200 day ma similar to what happened in 1987. Went through the 200 day
—————– (02/24/2018 10:07) —————–
ljr ipad: q: if we get a retest of the high, is there a possibility of new upleg?
—————– (02/24/2018 10:11) —————–
Bill G: My point earlier was that this rally may get a new high in NQ while the es may not ,similar to the test of high in 1987
—————– (02/24/2018 10:22) —————–
David B: AMZN
ljr ipad: stocks: TSLA! MU
—————– (02/24/2018 10:23) —————–
ljr ipad: SHOP, NFLX
ljr ipad: AMAT
—————– (02/24/2018 10:41) —————–
ljr ipad: curious, key vs pivot…anyone better than the other?
—————– (02/24/2018 10:47) —————–
ljr ipad: thx
Bill G: Thanks
David B: Thanks
CORRECTION: Saturday Review Link
SORRY FOR THE LAST-MINUTE NOTICE, BUT ADOBE HAS JUST CHANGED OUR ASSIGNMENT. SATURDAY REVIEW WILL BEGIN 5 MINUTES LATER AT 9:35 ET… See you there!
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s early blip-up above 1.2320 never extended higher intraday. Friday’s open blipped-back down but never extended down. The burden of proof is on buyers, so the pattern is more vulnerable to extending down further.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Little movement intraday Friday is not helpful in trying to reject Wednesday’s dip. Closing back above 1335.00 would still be credible for launching a recovery, but it is no more likely.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing into Friday’s open stopped short of triggering a recovery, which keeps the pattern in the vicinity of its 16.50 sell signal whose trigger would target a retest of prior lows.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s bounce extended higher overnight and into Friday afternoon to 144-05, still leaving “unfinished business below” at the gap back down to Wednesday’s 142-20 close. Back under 143-12 would signal the bounce had ended.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher again Friday confirmed Thursday’s breakout from the recent range, putting into play at least an eventual third higher close, and probably also a test of 67.05. Pullbacks meanwhile should be limited to testing 61.35, although there isn’t any bullish reason for any more backing-and-filling before extending higher.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still hovering flat-to-lower into the weekend avoided closing the week at a new low close, but also avoided the bullish setup of recovering from probing fresh lows intraday — and at least probing fresh lows intraday remains very likely, if not also required before a recovery would be credible.