Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late dip under 1.2395 was recovered at Thursday’s open. But not extended, as price hovered just above it.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The post-close reaction down from Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes did produce a gap down Thursday, but it was recovered entirely to range around unchanged, hovering just under the 1335.00 buy signal that remains valid if triggered.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting the 16.40 sell signal overnight was recovered into a shallower gap down Thursday, which was retraced entirely to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close and to probe above Wednesday’s highs. Closing above Thursday’s 16.66 high would launch a new upleg.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Trending down to fresh lows in reaction to Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes had closed at 142-20. Thursday’s gap up extended to 143-18, but closing under 143-14 maintains the downside momentum, and the attraction to filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s close.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping down to 60.75 overnight had recovered to greet Wednesday’s EIA report at 61.35. Its reaction surged to fresh highs above 63.00. Not resuming the decline back under 61.35 for so long has been rewarded. Closing higher Friday would confirm a new rally leg underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still ranging narrowly through Thursday’s EIA report is not strength, especially so long as 2.70 holds as resistance, and the pattern remains likely to probe fresh lows.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down had held intraday, but it extended lower overnight to gap down Tuesday and test 1.2320 support. Reaction to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes surged back up to Tuesday’s highs, still needing to recover 1.2395 to reverse the trend back up.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not holding 1335.00 Tuesday still requires a close back above 1341.00 to launch a recovery leg. Extending the pullback otherwise has no lower objective in-play. Retesting Tuesday’s 1330.00 low held intraday, and reacted up on FOMC Minutes to test 1338.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding 16.40 Tuesday and only testing it overnight allowed Wednesday to hold the pullback limit. But closing any lower would target fresh lows. The intaday bounce back up above 16.60 reacted up sharply on FOMC Minutes and filled the gap back up to Friday’s ~16.75 close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower into and out Wednesday’s open greeted the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes at the trading range’s 143-14 lower-end, which was still being tested after the event, having no bullish excuse to further delay recovering the 144-12 buy signal.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 61.35 bounce limit still being probed at Tuesday’s close was tested as support overnight. The delay in rejecting its recovery makes its actual rejection likely to done aggressively, and any shallower weakness would be more vulnerable to recovery.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s gap up to test the 2.65 prior high had held, still being likely to probe fresh lows before any credible recovery could begin.