Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s session long rally had retested the prior Thursday’s opening gap. Two interim sessions of distribution were ignored. Those sessions were probed down to 1.2441 in reaction to Friday’s payrolls. Their 1.2490-1.2515 upper-end was probed into the afternoon. Sellers didn’t gain traction, but a fresh low would be credible for extending down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s close above 1350.50 had put into play new highs, still needing the confirmation of a second consecutive higher close. But Friday’s gap down to their 1341.00 support probed lower to a “sleeper low” at 1330.50. Its bounce must extend higher coming out of the weekend to reverse momentum up.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Reacting down from its 17.30 resistance Wednesday did once again hold it 17.11 support. But Friday’s gap down under 16.95 trended down to fresh lows under 16.65. A second consecutive lower close on Monday would confirm the trend has reversed down

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The ongoing decline was its most obvious Thursday, and then probed lower overnight. Even the most optimistic session would be prevented from forming a durable bottom ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction gapped down and trended lower intraday, which is not a bottoming pattern.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not decisively triggering its 65.35 buy signal Thursday didn’t prevent extending higher overnight to fill the gap back up to 66.05. But trending down Friday morning to attack 64.45 was recovered back into positive territory, all ensuring the 67.15 target is in-play.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday was the second consecutive downday of reacting back down to a prior buy signal’s support. Its gap avoided being filled, which would have been the most bullish scenario. But recovering from an early fresh low on Monday could launch a recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Two days of early strength held tests of Friday’s high as resistance. Closing back under Friday’s low or lower prevented gaining traction. None of which prevented Thursday’s open from gapping up even higher and trending up through the morning. Trending back down through Friday morning would be credible for having ended a corrective rally. Otherwise, fresh highs are in-play.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction continued the intraday recovery from probing fresh lows. But Thursday did not extend the reversal, which would still be credible if resumed into the weekend.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday held another test of 17.11 support to avoid launching a new downleg. Back above 17.30 would be credible for at least retesting last week’s high, but there is otherwise no further requirement.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another inappropriate bounce Wednesday had already been retraced to its origin, but the retracement avoided fulfilling a required new low close. Thursday’s fresh lows did fulfill the decline’s minimum objective, but now Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing overnight greeted Thursday’s open testing 65.35 resistance whose recovery would launch the next upleg targeting 64.20. But the session only ranged around it, not establishing that momentum has reversed up.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having fulfilled all upside requirements, at least a pullback became possible. Thursday overcompensated by gapping down through the 3.10 pullback limit and collapsing under 3:05. The recent rally was retraced back down to three-week old lows testing 2.85.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday gapped up to test Tuesday’s 1.2480 resistance test of Friday’s highs, which had held,. Wednesday’s test also reversed back into the range ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC news, and then into negative territory to signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday within Tuesday’s range didn’t ensure extending higher, especially after Tuesday’s initial surge initially ended in negative territory. The otherwise inside day greeted FOMC and then dipped to fresh lows under the 1341.00 pullback limit. Retracing back up overnight would be reliable for retesting last week’s highs.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up attacked the 17.30 buy signal which held its morning test ahead of FOMC. Reacting down attacked the rally’s 17.11 pullback limit, whose break through the close during regular trading hours would be likely to extend down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing overnight after having confirmed a breakout was already doomed to failure. It was already reversed back down to Tuesday’s low ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC, and then lower in reaction. Fulfilling the minimum requirement for an eventual third lower close doesn’t end the decline.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight weakness extended the 2-day pullback to probe under 64.25 support. The morning’s negative reaction to EIA was absorbed to at least pierce positive territory momentarily.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having fully fulfilled last week’s confirmed breakout, at least a pullback was likely. Wednesday’s open gapped down sharply and trended down intraday, testing 3.00-3.05.