Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
1.2475 resistance was probed into through Tuesday’s open and held a test of Friday’s high before reversing back down to unchanged. Just closing back under Friday’s range indicates the bounce was weak-handed, still needing confirmation of following through to the downside.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr, which trades at about a $5 premium to Feb]… Bouncing Tuesday tested the 1350.50 bounce limit which reacted down to probe under Monday’s low and to retest the 1340.00 area “lower prior highs” whose test on Monday had triggered the interim bounce. Sellers gained no traction for their effort.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday probed higher only briefly before its test of 17.30 resistance had pushed back down to retest Monday’s low. The gap back down to Monday’s close is filled, which doesn’t equate to being a buy signal, but would be constructive to another rally attempt succeeding.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s open didn’t gap down as Monday’s “ineffectually optimistic” pattern usually resolves, but the trend remained down as fresh lows were probed into the afternoon. Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement is being greeted from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s bounce off of 64.95 support was recovered only back above last Thu-Fri low, but did not reverse momentum up. Dipping into Tuesday’s open extended down to test critical support at 64.20. Back above 64.95 would resume the rally.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and ranging sideways throughout Tuesday still produced a higher close, which fulfills the minimum requirement for last week’s confirmed breakout. Meanwhile, the session may have formed an Island, a pattern that can reverse down but only temporarily.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap down is in-line with the Head & Shoulders top that had formed through Friday’s bounce. A temporary correction down to 1.2365 or 1.2305 is now in-play so long as bounces hold 1.2460 before a last probe of new highs can develop.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday night’s dip had held the rally’s 1345.00 pullback limit and wasn’t threatened intraday Friday, which maintained the 1368.50 target. But Sunday night’s renewed selling probed deeper, extending the pullback to attack “lower prior highs” at 1335.50. Regardless, at least the gap back up to Friday’s close and potentially 1368.50 remain in-play so long as the pullback doesn’t close under 1328.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s retest of the rally’s 17.30 pullback limit jeopardize the upside momentum. Already having tested its 17.72 target to within a penny doesn’t help to attract sponsorship for holding the pullback limit. But already extending lower Monday to test 17.10 may have expended more energy than sustainable without a bounce.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pattern extended down to fresh lows Sunday night, now leaving a gap above that may help to encourage a recovery when the decline has finished. At least another fresh low remains likely, and retracing it sufficiently before Friday’s jobs report could form a bottom.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s dip into Monday morning tested the 64.95 pullback limit. Closing above last Thu-Fri 65.37 low suggests the pullback will hold, and back above 66.05 would resume the rally targeting 67.15.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday was in-line with expectations for not extending the rally without a somewhat brief yet deeper correction. Yet, the drop immediately began recovering and filled the gap back up to Friday’s 3.18 close. The pattern’s timing is difficult at this point, but at least another new recovery high close remains likely.