Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge above the original 1.1930 sell signal was retraced overnight and struggled to hold through Thursday morning. Breaking lower through Friday’s open would be credible for extending down. But not yet rejecting the bounce would make 1.2015 likelier to test, first.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-higher ranging into Thursday did not reject any of the recent gain, maintaining the uptrend and the 1283.50 target in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging into Thursday did not reject any of the recent gain, maintaining the uptrend and the 16.85 target in-play.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s gap down under Tuesday’s 151-16 close wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. Neither was it rejected, whether overnight to form an Island, or intraday. Gapping up above 151-16 Friday could still form an Island reversal, at least targeting 152-22. Just closing above 151-16, which is meanwhile resistance, would suggest some updraft underway.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh recovery highs overnight was retraced before Thursday’s open, and then repeated through the morning. The prior week’s 58.50 gap up was attacked to within almost a dime, where there is natural resistance.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from either a position of weakness or of strength, although last Friday’s 2.61 gap had just been filled and held by dipping from a position of strength above 2.71. There was no knee-jerk reaction, as price simply weakened to attack last Friday’s 2.58 low, which can hold to form a durable bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 1.1930 bounce limit was probed substantially Wednesday morning, filling a 3-week old gap back to 1.1975. Back under 1.1930 and 1.1910 would reverse the trend back down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s pause had avoided probing Monday’s highs intraday, despite having probed higher overnight. Probing another fresh high overnight again all but ensured trending higher intraday Wednesday, nearing 1277.50-1280.50 resistance.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending higher Wednesday probed overnight highs. Closing higher again Thursday would be likelier to reach the 16.65 target before another pullback.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite Tuesday’s extended decline holding 151-16 through the close, Wednesday morning gapped down to fresh lows and tested 150-20. Closing back above 151-16 would at least rob the decline of its traction, if not also trigger a bigger squeeze. There is otherwise no buy signal.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs overnight produced another gap up above the 57.45 bounce limit that once again reversed back down to the 56.85 sell signal. But rather than break, its touch launched a bigger bounce back above the open’s high The next opportunity to peak is at a gap outstanding from last week at 58.45, or closing under 57.45.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday morning’s slide filled the gap back down to Friday’s 2.61 close. Having originated from a position of strength of closing above 2.71, the dip is likelier to be recovered. And its recovery back above 2.71 and 2.80 would launch a credible recovery. So, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of weakness.