Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s 1.1905 61.8% retracement of the drop from Wednesday’s high was retested Tuesday morning and probed into the afternoon, attacking the 1.1930 sell signal that must hold to maintain the decline’s momentum.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing Monday’s highs overnight up to 1268.50 had disappeared by Tuesday’s open, and the morning dipped down to 1262.50, not rejecting what is already a confirmed reversal next targeting 1283.50.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight  above Monday’s highs was mostly retraced before Tuesday’s open, and then reversed into negative territory through the morning, but was recovered to unchanged.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s 61.8% retracement of the rally from last week’s 152-05 low had room for noise down to 152-22, but Tuesday’s open spiked through it on the way to fresh lows at 151-12. Closing above 151-16 keeps alive the potential that the two-day drop has been a temporary correction, a pattern that would also require recovering 152-18.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming again Tuesday avoided re-triggering the 56.85 sell signal while still testing the 57.45 bounce limit. Closing beyond either remains likely to extend in that direction, with the downside potentially limited to 55.50.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Closing Monday above 2.71 is a position of strength that makes a recovery likely from dipping to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 2.61 close. Extending higher first would make the recovery temporary.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap up and the morning’s follow-through retraced 61.8% of the week-ending reaction down from having retested the 1.1930 sell signal as resistance last Wednesday (basis Mar). The bearish scenario requires no further corrective bounce, and would have difficulty absorbing it. So, not already reversing back down Tuesday could default to a more bullish scenario.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh recovery highs Sunday night all but confirms an objective is in-play at 1283.50, with some relevant resistance at 1277.50-1280.50. Closing back under 1255.00 would at least require a new buy signal to trigger.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s close was still overlapping 16.05, so probing higher overnight only increases the requirement for a fresh close to confirm the recovery underway is next targeting 16.65. Closing back under 15.90 would all but invalidate the upside momentum.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The week was greeted with essentially a confirmed breakout yet to be fulfilled by at least a third eventual higher close. Sunday night’s pullback persisted through Monday morning, especially as any value to its “flight-to-safety” feature wasn’t needed.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher Sunday night tested the 57.40 bounce limit, but reversing down into Monday’s open and through the morning attacked the 56.80 sell signal already in-play from having been broken last week.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night to probe back above last Wed-Thu’s lows does help to confirm their indication that the decline’s momentum was already waning. The gap back down to Friday’s 2.61 close should still be filled before a durable rally can begin, preferably filled from a close above 2.71 which would be a position of strength.