Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fluctuating narrowly Thursday keeps alive the corrective bounce targeting 1.1970, with room meanwhile down to 1.1830 before resuming the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Testing 1300.00 overnight was retraced enough for Thursday’s open only to overlap Tuesday’s 1296.50 high. It was still being overlapped through the afternoon, and needs to hold as resistance for a near-term pullback to remain likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing higher overnight was unable to extend higher intraday, consolidating within the 17.11-17.20 range. A fresh high intraday Friday is possible in this pattern while still maintaining potential for one more corrective dip.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight nevertheless spent much of Thursday still overlapping 152-20, before the afternoon trended back up to test this week’s 153-02 high. Closing above 152-20 does help to greet Friday’s barrage of econ reports and Fed speakers from a position of strength, which might be called upon to help absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down to test 151-18 as support.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday under Wednesday’s lows extended down to the 50.25 buy signal. Its first intraday reaction up was retraced only up to 50.75 before dipping back down to 50.25, keeping alive the upside momentum — which is likely anyway, since Thursday’s EIA was greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping back up above 2.89 Thursday all but invalidated Wednesday’s close under it. Invalidated, in that the EIA reaction extended higher to test 2.99, and has potential for extending to 3.04. All but, in that the news was greeted from a position of weakness, which should limit its upside and still fill the gap back down to Monday’s 2.83 close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gaping up again Wednesday filled another gap outstanding from the decline at 1.1900. The corrective bounce has room up to 1.1970, while still being likely for its resolution to break sharply under 1.1760.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday morning’s narrow ranging around unchanged doesn’t in itself undermine the upside momentum, while keeping the pattern within the orbit of its 1277.50-1280.50 pullback objective. The afternoon’s dip to 1288.00 makes the pullback objective likely to be tested soon, if at all.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging Wednesday morning tried holding the 17.11 support whose break would start to signal a corrective dip underway. Still fluctuating around it at the close did open the door to extending down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness stopped short again of testing the 151-18 pullback potential. Wednesday’s open firmed to resume ranging around the 152-20 resistance that would at least challenge 153-14 where a bottom could be sealed.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher overnight to test 51.40 was nevertheless retraced to continue testing 49.75 as support Wednesday morning. Recovering into the close does all but require Thursday to extend the rally.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above the 2.89 buy signal Wednesday fluctuated between 2.93-2.96 through the morning. But the close dipped back under 2.89, all but ensuring a that the gap back down to Tuesday’s 2.83 close would be filled.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Attempts at holding 1.1760 support continued Tuesday, as the bounce extended higher to probe the 1.1810 bounce limit up to 1.1870. The near-term bearish resolution has no excuse to further delay breaking sharply back under 1.1760.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap up to test 1296.50 has not lessened the likelihood for retracing lower prior highs down to 1277.50-1280.50 before a durable rally would be credible.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday filled a 3-week old gap back up to 17.11, attacking 17.30. Any higher would seal a bottom, which may be a little too aggressive after so recently having probed a new low. A dip to 16.90-17.00 or even retest of 16.50 would form a more durable bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The passage of time may have accomplished the correction that a deeper pullback did not. Tuesday morning’s rally through 152-20 up to 153-02 still has to recover 153-14 before confirming momentum is reversing up. Otherwise, not closing above 152-20 Tuesday keeps alive the 151-18 pullback potential before forming a more durable bottom.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday to the 50.25 bounce limit extended through it, probing the 50.75 buy signal intraday. The leg that closed above 50.75 was also still overlapping it, all but requiring the recovery to extend higher without delay if it is valid.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday morning’s bounce up to the 2.89 bounce limit held, and held there throughout the session. The gap now outstanding back down to Monday’s close should be filled before a break higher can be credible.