Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Sunday night held up through Monday morning to avoid resuming the decline, and the anticipated break back under 1.1760, which remains likely so long as bounces hold 1.810

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although Friday’s brief probe of fresh lows had been retraced while failing to gain traction, Sunday night’s bounce to 1288.00 resistance was premature for already launching a recovery. Monday’s gap up wasn’t any likelier to extend, still likely at least to fill the gap back down to Friday’s close, potentially down to 1269.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s test of 16.90 was exceeded Monday morning to probe above 17.00. Holding a test of the decline’s 16.50 target on Friday does allow a bottom to form, although a test of 16.60 as support would help to make a recovery more credible.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s shallow range hovered just above the 151-18 pullback objective that would help to fully form a bottom. Its test remains likely, although not already resuming Friday’s dip does make a rally effort likely within the next two sessions. Closing above 152-20 would be credible for extending higher.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s break wasn’t from a multi-session range, so Monday wasn’t capable of confirming it. So, ranging narrowly intraday — instead of extending down — doesn’t reject the downside momentum. A recovery should be obvious Tuesday to avoid lower lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down Friday under the 2.89 target already had prevented Monday from recovering. Fresh lows were likely, but closing positive could have then suggested a bottom was forming. The morning’s fresh lows down to 2.83 consolidated through the afternoon but did not recover.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite spiking down to fresh lows in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report, the morning recovered back above 1.1760. The action is reminiscent of ongoing behavior at the same precise level during August, before the interim rally that has now been retraced. But there is no bullish reason to have retraced the entire raly.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The knee-jerk reaction to Friday’s payrolls was a mini-plunge to fresh lows. It wasn’t being attempted from a position of weakness, as the 1280.50 target area had continued holding as support. In fact, it was recovered entirely by the afternoon. Almost any higher close Monday would suggest a bottom is forming.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.50 target was finally tested in reaction to Friday’s payrolls report probed by a dime and then recovered entirely into positive territory through the morning. The low’s retest isn’t required, but probably won’t be avoided without extending higher through Monday’s close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to monthly payrolls was to probe the next lower objective at 151-08/151-11. Its anticipated reaction back up stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Thursday’s close. Closing negative Friday to fulfill the outstanding objective would enable a pullback to 151-18 would help to finish forming a bottom.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down under Wednesday’s 49.75 low ended the week at a new relative low, making near-term recovery unlikely without another fresh low. So, greeting the new week bouncing would likely fail.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 2.89 close was already likely. But gapping down to it Friday only extended down below it. A second consecutive lower close on Monday could prevent any near-term bottoming, let alone recovery.