Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher again overnight had reacted down ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC events, testing the Pivotal Uptrending Support that has defined the past week’s rally. And yet another reaction up probed a fresh high at 1.2092. The FOMC reaction plunged back into Monday’s range at 1.1985, Extending down immediately isn’t required, but 1.1945 is the next lower attraction.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding 1310.50 as support again Tuesday wasn’t the most bullish position for greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events. Already closing above 1318.50 would have been more bullish, but it was only tested overnight, and held intraday ahead of the post-close news. The knee-jerk reaction spiked down $11 to test this week’s lows around 1308.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming overnight had probed the 17.30 buy signal that had avoided triggering Tuesday. But extending to test 17.50 didn’t prevent a reaction down from attacking 17.25.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s open wasn’t greeted optimistically, as price continued testing 154-04 as support. Its test probed its lowest levels down to 153-29. Not yet recovering any relevant resistance ahead of the FOMC events Knee-jerk reaction to the news probed slightly lower momentarily.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
[Rolling coverage forward today to Nov, which trades at a 40-cent premium to Oct…] Overnight and morning action remained within Tuesday’s range. But Wednesday’s open gapped up to Monday’s close and the morning extended back up to last week’s high, where a higher close would signal the rally had resumed

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging had started giving way overnight, with plenty of room below to expend selling pressure without it damaging the bullish chart. Testing 3.10 Wednesday still had room to 3.07 or 3.02 before suggesting momentum reversing down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another fresh recovery high Tuesday at 1.2050 was reversed to test the uptrending pivotal support emanating from the recent pullback low at 1.1745. Dipping back under 1.2015 would likely test 1.1945, and probably also retrace the entire recovery leg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming Tuesday morning helped to confirm the relevance of Monday having closed at 1310.50 support. But reversing the trend up was not likely to tolerate much of a delay. And the balance of the session fluctuated around 1310.50. Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC events from already closing above 1318.50 would have been much more reliably bullish.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning ranged flat-to-higher off of Monday’s test of 17.10 support, resisted by the 17.30 buy signal. Its recovery Tuesday would still be credible for at least filling the gap back up to Friday’s 17.70 close.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Ranging flat-to-lower through Tuesday’s noon hour had pierced Monday’s 154-04 low by only 2 ticks, while RSIs diverged positively. The 154-30 buy signal remains intact, but not greeting Wednesday afternoon’s events from the position of strength possible by already having closed above it.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Tuesday extended Monday’s reversal from completing its pullback, but stopped short of touching Thursday’s high before reversing back down into Monday’s range. A fresh high close above 50.50 is required to extend the rally, which otherwise has no “unfinished business above” preventing its reversal down.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming ahead of Tuesday’s open tried extending Monday’s rally, but the balance of the session mostly ranged narrowly sideways. In any case, the rally was not rejected, so any pullback would likely be absorbed and recovered.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s brief test of the 1.1845 pullback objective was apparently sufficient to launch a recovery. At least, more sufficient than I had assumed, because Sunday night’s open gapped up above Tuesday’s ~1.2000 high, and Monday probed higher to test 1.2025. Only slightly higher, and only temporarily, dipping back down to 1.1980. Any lower on Tuesday would target would target 1.1930 and potentially a new downleg.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s attack on the 1318.50 pullback objective had never closed above the 1334.00 buy signal. A retest of last week’s low more thoroughly tested 1318.50, and then extended deeper to test 1308.50. Closing back above 1313.00 would suggest the decline is ending, but reversing up would require closing back above 1318.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Delaying a pullback to 17.70 last week has resulted in a deeper drop this week to 17.11. An immediate reversal up by closing back above 17.30 would be credible in this pattern, while not attempting to recover until after Tuesday’s close would likely be only temporary.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Despite slowing the descent as prior lows were tested into the weekend, last week’s reversal seemingly resumed Monday by probing intraday down to 154-04. Now recovering 154-30 would start to signal at least a corrective bounce underway.

Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Monday extended the pullback underway since mid-day Thursday. The morning’s low filled the gap back to last Wednesday’s 49.25 open. Its reaction up threatened to close positive, which would form a bullish Pivot Reversal setup.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s pullback to 3.02 had no bullish excuse Monday to further delay resuming last week’s rally. The pattern would not benefit from any more backing-and-filling. Monday’s gap up above last week’s 3.10 high was a little aggressive, but trended higher intraday anyway.