Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge was further retraced Thursday night, testing its 1.2030 corrective bounce limit up to 1.2059. Dipping into the afternoon stopped optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Thursday’s close, still likely to resume the decline.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The overnight reaction to new N.Korea missile threats was muted, suggesting that pessimism remains alive and well. A recovery attempt wouldn’t yet have been credible, anyway. But fresh lows into the weekend in Gold are rarely a bottom.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow ranging overnight around 17.00 was even narrower intraday Friday. The consolidation of Wednesday’s break may have been extended as a weekend hedge against missiles flying, but has no other reason to avoid extending the decline.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight to retest 154-16 still stopped short of the 154-30 buy signal that would reverse the trend up. So, the door remains open to a more thorough test of the decline’s 153-14 maximum pullback limit to form a more durable bottom.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The narrowest intraday range since last Friday, which had also developed around 50.50, didn’t suggest the current basing is inclined to launch a new rally leg.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s plunge to 2.95 didn’t extend down Friday, but neither was it rejected, let alone recovered. And avoiding an extension down to 2.84 all but required a quick reversal back up above 3.02. Having avoided a second consecutive lower close, recovering 3.02 through Monday morning could still be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction ultimately extended down to 1.1917, completing a 61.8% retracement of the recent rally. The rally’s complete retracement to at least test it 1.1745 low is likely, while bounces hold 1.2025-1.2040.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Greeting Wednesday’s FOMC from under 1318.50 wasn’t a position of strength. The reaction plunged to fresh lows that extended lower overnight and Thursday morning to 1291.20. Bounces should hold 1302.50 while the decline extends to test 1288.00.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Hovering under the 17.30 buy signal Tuesday reacted down sharply to Wednesday’s FOMC, testing 17.00 support Thursday down to 16.88. Bounces should hold 17.30 before a bottom can form.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s attack on 153-14 support reacted up Thursday to test 154-16. The bounce had room up to 154-30 but reacted back down to unchanged. A retest of Wednesday’s low is likely signal before signaling the trend reversing back up, but also likely to hold.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s failed probe of last week’s high extended down only slightly overnight, and ranged narrowly Thursday. Closing under 50.00 would be the first step to reversing the trend down. But any new high close above 51.00 would signal the rally is extending.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pullback’s room down to 3.02 was tested soon after Thursday’s 3.07 open. The reaction to EIA extended down to 2.95. This seriously undermines the ongoing bottoming pattern, or at least its near-term potential to avoid a deeper drop to 2.84.