Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday morning’s narrow ranging around the 1.1765 sell signal helped to confirm its relevance in a way not yet done this week, but it still has yet to resolve.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight to probe the 1305.00 target by a couple of dollars was reversed back down through the morning and noon hour to test negative territory and the 1290.00 pullback limit. Friday’s 1301.20 gap up above all prior highs does still want to be retested before a decline can be credible for extending.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday to 17.20 was not above prior highs  So, despite probing higher, reversing down into negative territory under 17.00 doesn’t leave any “unfinished business above” before a durable decline would be credible.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply higher highs to 156-12 Friday are entirely in-line with the bullish pattern continuing to unfold, and its destination as a flight-to-safety amid broader market behavior. Stocks turning up triggered a pullback to last week’s “lower prior highs” at 155-16 as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Initially firming a little Friday morning extended more substantially through the morning to probe the 48.25 sell signal. The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs has its first higher high, but still needs another to reverse the trend up. Meanwhile, closing back above 48.75 would signal a new rally leg already underway, instead of retesting the lows fist.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
So long as 2.95 isn’t recovered, more thoroughly testing the 2.92 .bounce limit into Friday morning didn’t invalidate Wednesday’s break under 2.91 that had put into play a test of 2.81-2.82.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s surge back above the 1.1765 sell signal to 1.1800 was in reaction to the FOMC Minutes, and not due to accumulation. The overnight reaction down retraced it all and then some, probing under Wednesday’s lows. The morning’s reaction up held resistance at the 1.1765 sell signal.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging through 1295.00 after Wednesday’s close in reaction to the FOMC Minutes wasn’t entirely retained into Thursday’s open. The restrained optimism helps to keep alive this leg’s potential to 1305.00. Also necessary is that pullbacks hold 1285.00, which was being attacked as support after Thursday’s gap up.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s post-close extension of its intraday rally had extended through the 17.05 pullback limit whose break had enabled the interim dip to test 16.60. Thursday’s gap up dipped to test 17.05 as support. Closing higher Friday would signal the rally leg had resumed.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight dip back down to Wednesday’s 154-20 buy signal was recovered Thursday morning back up through 155-10. That is the minimum requirement to resume the rally instead of forming a top. The afternoon extended to test last week’s highs above 155-22, with no bullish excuse to further delay extending sharply higher.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Further weakness overnight continued to confirm the 48.25 sell signal, and it 43.50 objective are in-play. The ongoing downtrending of lower lows and lower highs also makes a recovery difficult.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending down overnight didn’t greet Thursday’s EIA from any better position of strength. The knee-jerk reaction up tested the 2.91 sell signal, and holding it would keep alive its 2.81-2.82 pullback target. Closing above 2.95 would nevertheless signal further pullback wasn’t necessary before rallying.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Choppy overnight action amid ECB “trial balloons” triggered a gap down Wednesday that tested Tuesday’s low. Bouncing before the FOMC Minutes filled the open’s gap, and then extended through it back to 1.1800 resistance. Not rejecting the late bounce early Thursday could extend it to fresh highs above 1.1945.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
An overnight dip back into the 1271.00-1281.00 range fluctuated narrowly Wednesday, until the Trump headlines triggered a surge through 1281.00. If valid for targeting a test of the highs’ Island, then Thursday must maintain Wednesday’s post-close FOMC reaction through 1285.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite not recovering Tuesday’s test of the 16.60 pullback limit to close back above 16.70, Wednesday morning rallied through it as if the bottom is already in, testing 17.00.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight back down to Tuesday’s low stopped short of touching it, let alone piercing it down to 153-18. The morning’s had already recovered to Tuesday’s test of 154-10 before the Trump headlines triggered a surge up to 154-30 ahead of the FOMC Minutes release. Any higher close would signal a new rally leg underway.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having firmed in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close API, knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA pierced a fresh high up to 48.00. It snapped back down to and through Tuesday’s ~47.00 lows, potentially resuming the 48.25 sell signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s bounce from testing 2.92 wasn’t exploited overnight, as Wednesday opened under 2.91 and targeting 2.81-2.82.