Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing a fresh low and testing “lower prior highs” under the 1.1765 sell signal down to 1.0707 was mostly recovered intraday, but not rejected. Any initial weakness Wednesday would be credible for a more durable break lower.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s drop under the 1285.00 pullback limit stopped short of its potential to 2471.00, but its reaction up also stopped short of recovering 1280.00 to reverse momentum up. Regardless, the pattern results in an Island, which is generally reliable for being retested, but from lower levels if not already underway within 1-2 days.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting the 17.05 pullback limit overnight didn’t hold and instead broke sharply lower Tuesday morning to 16.60. Its reaction up tested 16.70, whose recovery would suggest the pullback had ended. Closing under 16.60 would signal a deeper pullback underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down to the 154-30 pullback limit and sliding to nearly fill last week’s gap back down to 153-22 expended almost all allowable selling pressure without altogether reversing the trend down. Closing back above 154-20 — which a bounce was overlapping mid-afternoon — would almost single-handedly launch the next upleg.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s open quickly extended down from Monday’s close under the 48.25 sell signal to test 47.00. The extra confirmation makes the reversal more reliable, targeting a retest of prior lows.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s reaction down to 2.91-2.92 support had reacted up into the close, but Tuesday didn’t immediately exploit it by extending any higher. .

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s break back above 1.1720 resistance was suspicious because it originated from an extended test of “lower prior highs.” Monday’s open gapped down to 1.1720 and didn’t recover, suggesting that momentum remains pointed down.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s drop to the 1285.00 pullback limit held for Monday morning, but only to hold 1290.00 and not yet to bounce back up to Friday’s close. Potential to 1305.00 otherwise remains intact.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s dip attacked the 16.90 low of last week’s test of the 17.05 pullback limit. Monday’s open began recovering and the morning extended back into positive territory, marginalizing sellers for another day.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was probably motivated by a flight-from-quality during the stock rally. Gapping down to the 154-30 pullback limit held, and despite the rally persisting throughout the morning, the gap back up to Friday’s close was nearly filled above 155-10. .

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s test of the 48.25 sell signal had held, but didn’t recover the two-week long Triangle’s lower-end. Monday morning improved back up to the Triangle’s apex at 49.15. That corrected the first drop, and resolved down into Monday afternoon probing fresh lows under 47.74. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm the pattern has rolled over.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Room down to 2.91-2.92 was tested through Monday morning’s steep opening slide. Firming through the noon hour avoided closing lower, which would still target 2.81-2.82.