Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Slightly lower lows Wednesday didn’t extend beyond the “lower prior highs” that must hold to maintain potential for one more fresh high in the 1.1945-1.1970 area.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap up back to last week’s 1280.00 prior highs fluctuated there intraday, leaving gaps outstanding below to at least 1271.00 before any further rally would be credible for gaining traction.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to last week’s 16.85 highs fluctuated there through the day. Closing any higher would have been bullish before the interim collapse, but now there are gaps outstanding below. At least a dip to 16.60 is likely.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up probed the prior high and tested the longstanding 155-08 objective, neutralizing its attraction. Closing back under 154-30 would suggest the retest and neutralization will hold for a top to form, and 154-16 was already being tested into the afternoon. Somehow closing Thursday above Wednesday’s high would invalidate Wednesday’s weaker close.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Intraday action continues to lack volatility as the ranging persists between 48.25-50.10. The calm seems eerie during the volatility being seen elsewhere, but that is not unusual, and it is often followed by hyper-volatility that compensates for the delay.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s second consecutive higher close launched a gap up Wednesday that trended higher intraday to attack 2.92 resistance. The bottom has Island-like characteristics that suggest its 2.82 “lower prior high” will be retested. That would not be inappropriate in reaction to Thursday’s EIA report, which is being greeted from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday didn’t prevent dipping back down to test Friday’s lows, which were testing “lower prior highs” at 1.1730-1.1755. So long as the support area holds, there remains potential for probing fresh highs above 1.1945.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight ran into 1271.00 resistance that triggered a reversal to fresh lows attacking 1257.00. Its reaction up tested Monday’s 1264.00 close, but more importantly held above 1261.00 to avoid completing a bottom.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday was reversed down from 16.45 resistance. But its reaction down to fresh lows was recovered back into positive territory. It’s not a completed bottom, but the behavior does suggest that a pullback is ending with potential for a bounce up to 16.60 or 16.70.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing a fresh low had room down to 153-16 before signaling a deeper drop underway. It was only attacked Tuesday morning, keeping alive the likelihood for retesting last week’s highs up to 155-16.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still fluctuating in the range, closing above 50.10 would trigger a new upleg, but under 48.25 would help to confirm that a more substantial retracement back to the lows is underway.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher overnight was retraced into Tuesday’s open. The initial dip was reversed back into positive territory. A second consecutive positive close does suggest that a bottom has formed, with some potential for probing a fresh low, but now very likely to recover and reverse up.