Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Although last week’s rally stopped short of its 1.1945-1.1970 potential, extending down Monday could have reversed the trend. Gapping up shallowly doesn’t prevent resuming the decline anyway, but it does start to suggest the highs will be tested as part of completing a top.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging Sunday night persisted into Monday morning as the 1261.00 support fought to prevent at least filling near-term gaps below, let alone extending down into a deeper decline.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Sunday night persisted into Monday’s gap down, which hovered in negative territory. No deeper pullback is required, but a deeper pullback is likely nonetheless so long as Tuesday’s open doesn’t gap up back above Friday’s close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Relatively narrow ranging Monday didn’t extend Friday’s reaction down, further suggesting that too little time was spent testing the high for it not to be retested regardless of the resolution.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging avoided a fresh low, as well as the 48.25 sell signal, while awaiting at least a deeper pullback if not also a trend reversal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s pre-open pierce of Tuesday’s 2.76 low didn’t fulfill its retest, and neither did Friday morning’s hovering just above the prior low. So, Monday’s pierce of Friday’s highs certainly didn’t complete the bottom, either. That said, a second higher close Tuesday would suggest a bigger bounce underway first.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially bouncing Friday stopped short again of fulfilling potential to 1.1945-1.1970 before reacting down aggressively. Closing lower Monday would not be capable of signaling a trend change, but a weak bounce Monday would be very vulnerable to signaling a trend change on Tuesday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping back down to 1270.00 Thursday after bouncing from it Wednesday chipped away at the last support offered there. Friday plunged to test the next objective at 1271.00. Recovering 1272.00 would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but must recover 1285.00 to suggest something other than just more topping. Near-term attraction to gaps below indicate a bearish resolution regardless of the path there.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Returning back down to 16.60 support already had indicated its eventual break, which was fulfilled by Friday’s plunge to 16.20. Immediate strength coming out of the weekend could be productive Monday morning, but still probably only temporary before at least retesting Friday’s lows.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday extended higher momentarily, but long enough to attack the outstanding 155-16 target to within 6 ticks. Reacting down sharply filled the gap back down to Thursday’s close around 154-04 that has defined prior highs. There is no requirement to retest the high, or to fulfill the entire target, but it remains the likelier resolution.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging persisted Friday above the 48.25 sell signal, and under the 50.10 target that has been met already. Closing beyond either would be likely to extend in that direction.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s 2.76 low had required a retest. Thursday night’s drop pierced it, but Friday only attacked it repeatedly. The “ineffectual optimism” still suggests a fresh low is required, regardless of the ultimate resolution.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Shallow overnight lows held “lower prior highs” at 1.1860 before firming into Thursday morning, still having room up to 1.1945-1.1970.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Launching the gap fill back to Tuesday’s close from testing 1271.00 support had indicated the gap’s test would react down to 1261.00-1262.00. The 1269.70 gap’s test reacted down Wednesday night to 1263.00, bouncing back above 1271.00, short of its lower objective, which is still in-play.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down to 16.45 had recovered to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 16.78 close. But simply launching the gap fill from 16.60 had indicated the gap would hold. Its reaction down overnight retested 16.45 but bounced back above 16.60 through the morning.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up didn’t extend higher Thursday, but that sufficed to fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least one more higher close. More is likely to come, since the session held at or under the prior high, likely at least to probe higher.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Thursday morning back toward 50.10 has no requirement to resolve in either direction, and the trend remains up with higher highs and higher lows. But not closing above 50.10 keeps alive potential to close under 48.25 and launch a new downleg.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from a position of strength, regardless of having firmed into it. Its reaction dipped back down into the range, still likely to retest the low even in the most bullish scenario.