Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
At least probing fresh highs remained likely, if not actually a new high close. Overinght strength was retraced before Wednesday’s open, but then probed through the morning to attack the 1.1945-1.1970 objective.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness extended into Wednesday’s open and tested the 1271.00 support before reacting up to nearly fill the gap back at Tuesday’s 1279.60 close. Just having touched 1271.00 suggests the gap fill will hold, and that a new reaction down will test 1261.00 and lower.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping overnight and into Wednesday’s open tested the 16.60 pullback limit down to 16.45. Its reaction up barely filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 16.77 close. Closing above 16.85 would signal another rally leg underway, but meanwhile closing under 16.60 would be bearish.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness was recovered into Wednesday’s open and extended to fresh recovery highs at 154-18, which was retraced back to unchanged around 154-00.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The pessimistic reaction to Wednesday’s EIA report didn’t probe any deeper than had Tuesday’s reaction down from retesting the 50.10 target. Closing under 48.25 would signal the rally having ended so that a new pullback could begin.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Retesting Tuesday’s fresh low and holding it would have avoided greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Also closing above their interim bounce high would have greeted EIA from a position of strength. Wednesday only ranged narrowly, suggesting either a knee-jerk reaction down to fresh lows regardless of its recovery, or a knee-jerk reaction up that fails.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight and Tuesday morning doesn’t threaten the upside momentum, which should still at least probe fresh highs intraday. Fresh highs have room up to 1.1955-1.1970.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Shallow overnight weakness was recovered by Tuesday’s open to extend the rally through the morning. Dipping back down to 1271.00 would target 1261.00 and likely reverse the trend down. Otherwise, the trend is next targeting 1303.00.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
An overnight dip filled gap back down to Friday’s close and reacted up to attack Monday’s highs Tuesday morning. Closing above 16.85 would signal that the rally was resuming, and pullbacks must meanwhile hold — if not also avoid altogether — a test of 16.60.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially dipping to within 1 tick of the 152-08 sell signal expended all available selling pressure without gaining any traction for the effort. Surging sharply back up through the already-triggered 152-26 buy signal and through the decline’s 153-16 inflection point was extended to attack 154-00. Wednesday has no excuse not to extend the rally further.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Re-testing 50.10 overnight reacted down Tuesday to attack 48.25, which had been the target’s pullback limit but is now the sell signal.

Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Tuesday morning doesn’t signal whether Monday’s plunge was a one-day wonder, but it shouldn’t prevent at least retesting Monday’s low in even the most bullish scenarios.