Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Jul 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The holiday-shortened week has two private employment snapshots being released the same day, when normally they’re a day apart. ADP is usually reliable for influencing price action. Any reaction to the pre-open reports is likely to be repeated by the morning’s other post-open reports.
John C. Williams Speaks
4:05 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Gallup Good Jobs Rate
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
*PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jul 5, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes could inhibit price action before it, but is likely to trigger a reaction in the wake of its release.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapped down Monday under its 1.1450 pullback limit to test 1.1400 whose break would signal the trend reversing down. Filling the gap back up to 1.1475 first would make a trend reversal more credible.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting up through the week avoided fulfilling the 1235.00 target that was only attacked during last Sunday’s “fat-finger” plunge. Sliding into the weekend extended down sharply Sunday night to fulfill the target, which was probed Monday morning down to 1220.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Last Sunday’s overnight “fat-finger” plunge had reacted up sharply from testing its 16.35 target, retracing entirely to test the 16.75 prior high up to 16.85 Thursday. But the trend never reversed up, and the weekend was greeted in decline. Sunday night’s plunge extended to retest the prior low, and trended deeper through the morning to attack 16.00.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing lower Sunday night needed to close above 154-02 to suggest the drop’s momentum had lapsed. But Monday morning probed fresh lows down to 152-28. Lower-prior highs from late-May offer potential for launching a bounce back up to 155-04.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Having extended Friday above Thursday’s test of the 45.25 target to 46.00, Sunday night also extended higher to test 46.85 Monday morning. And there’s room up to 47.00 before closing back under 46.00 would signal a quick temporary dip targeting 43.40.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s knee-jerk reaction up had been retraced to suggest the “lower prior highs” down to 2.95 would be tested so the bottoming pattern could complete. Friday’s dip had stopped 3 cents short before bouncing, but Sunday night gapped down to 2.95 and rallied through Monday’s open. Filling the gap back up to Friday’s 3.05 close reacted back down to attack 2.95.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jul 4, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: U.S. markets are closed Tuesday for the Independence Day holiday Globex trades through the noon hour, and then re-opens normally in the evening.
Globex close
1:15 PM ET
Globex normal open
6:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Three consecutive strongly trending sessions had fulfilled a confirmed breakout, and probed above the prior range’s maximum calculable breakout objective. A pullback had become likely regardless of news. The 1.4515 pullback limit held as support to a narrowly ranging session.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held tests of its 1246.50 bounce limit Thursday, overnight weakness remained vulnerable to resuming Wednesday’s night’s plunge that had stopped $4-5 short of fulfilling the outstanding 1235.00 target below. Dipping down to 1239.00 reacted up to attack the bounce limit, which held.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping further overnight greeted Friday by gapping down, not required to extend lower but still yet to have tested it 16.35 target below intraday. The open’s low attacked 16.50 before bouncing more than 15 cents, with no signal either way.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight weakness briefly pierced Thursday’s low, which itself had held a test of the decline’s 153-28/154-04 target. The setup is almost tantamount to triggering the 154-16 buy signal. Friday’s intraday behavior didn’t suggest it, only ranging narrowly at the target.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down Thursday to having met the extended 45.25 target was retraced overnight back up to Thursday’s 45.45 high, and then higher to attack 46.00. Back under 45.25 would signal the pattern is backing-and-filling down to the recent consolidation to complete a bottom.
Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Lower lows overnight extended Thursday’s lower resolution that followed its initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the morning’s EIA report. So long as 3.08 isn’t recovered, the pullback has room below to test “lower prior highs” and fill the gap down to 2.95-2.97. In fact, Friday’s dip attacked the range’s upper-end to within 1 cent.