Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-session range was already substantial. So was Wednesday’s confirmation. That didn’t prevent extending higher still on Thursday. But Thursday’s higher close does fulfill the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective, so a reaction down has become likely.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dropping $9 to 1239.70 into Thursday’s open stopped short of the 1235.00 target before reacting up to the 1246.50 bounce limit. Holding its test as resistance maintains the 1235.00 target.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a 10-cent premium to Jul] Sliding at Thursday’s open filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 16.65 close, which had launched Wednesday’s gap up to the highs. The decline’s 16.35 target was already met Sunday night.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sharply lower lows overnight for a third consecutive session tested the decline’s 153-28/154-02 objective down to 153-18. The 154-16 buy signal was attacked to within 4 ticks, still needing at least a consolidation before a recovery would be credible.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s attack on the 48.90 target had formed an Ascending Triangle with its target being 49.25. It was tested before Thursday’s open and probed intraday by 20 cents before dipping back under 44.90. A corrective pullback to 43.40 is likely, and would help to seal a bottom.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The initial ultimate reaction to Thursday’s EIA report probed above Wednesday’s high to 3.12, which had been the confirmation for Tuesday’s breakout. Its reaction down avoided fulfilling the minimum objective of a third higher closer, which suggests a corrective pullback to 2.95 before extending the rally.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially dipping held the 1.1355 pullback limit Wednesday before resolving up sharplyto 1.1441. Extending higher Wednesday confirms Tuesday’s breakout from a multi-session range. Regardless of either session’s advance or the cumulative gain, at least an eventual third higher close is required.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming further overnight finally retraced the 1254.50 origin of last of Sunday night’s “fat finger” plunge. Its resistance held post-open, enabling another downdraft to begin that actually tests the decline’s 1235.00 target.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight probed the 16.75 prior high that had preceded Sunday night’s “fat finger” sell-off. Its reaction down was recovered, but not exceeded through the close.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s steep drop had only two likely resolutions, either to extend down a lot immediately, or else to rally. Sharply lower overnight lows tested the next leg’s 154-16 objective down to 154-09 and bounced. Wednesday’s post-open action dipped to attack the overnight low down to 154-19.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down to API after Tuesday’s close was recovered overnight, and then extended in reaction to Wednesday morning’s EIA report. The 44.90 target was attacked to almost within a nickel, while forming an Ascending Triangle targeting 45.25.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and extending higher Wednesday confirmed Tuesday’s breakout, sealing a bottom. That bottom can still be tested as support down to 2.95, but the rally is otherwise free to exten.