Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s collapse to sharply lower lows from a multi-session range was nevertheless a breakout. But Friday bounced instead of confirming with a second consecutive lower close. This isn’t a buy signal, but holding an intraday test of the gap back down to Thursday’s 1.1195 close — which is likely to be retested — could help to form a bottom.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already rallying overnight to touch the 1295.75 buy signal extended through it at Friday’s open up to 1301.50 to signal a rally leg underway. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up to the adjusted 15.27 buy signal extended higher intraday to attack the previous 15.40 signal. A second consecutive higher close on Monday would confirm.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength reacted favorably on the news, and was positioned to produce the confirmed breakout’s minimum third higher close — which would become vulnerable to reversing back down to retest last Sunday night’s lows.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s pre-open retest of the 57.00 buy signal had avoided triggering again. Overnight action drifted lower to retest uptrending support that had absorbed the prior buy signal test’s reaction. This test wasn’t absorbed as Friday’s 55.10 open gapped down well under it to three-week old “lower prior highs.” Bouncing intraday held prior lows as support, but ran into resistance that can’t is likelier to produce a retest of Friday’s gap down than to recover.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still fluctuating within the past week’s range all but requires at least a probe of fresh highs, although first dipping would be more capable of converting a probe of fresh highs into a new rally leg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Before having another opportunity to trigger the 1.1350 buy signal, Thursday’s ECB events triggered a plunge to fresh relative lows. An immediate bounce would likely fail after Friday. Meanwhile, fresh lows into the weekend would be required to produce lower lows at some point on Monday.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another day of hovering at the lows, although early activity included a momentary fresh low. But its rubber band effect was too limited to trigger a reaction up, perhaps because of anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A blip-down to fresh lows Thursday held a test of 15.00 support before recovering back into the same narrow range of hovering at recent lows.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s attack on the 145-05 bounce objective didn’t require reversing down, and avoided triggering a sell signal before rallying again Thursday to the next bounce potential testing 145-20 by 5 ticks. That’s the week-old inflection point where the prior downtrend was launched under at least two supports, so it is also natural resistance. Its test is vulnerable to a reaction down, but meanwhile does greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength that suggests an initial knee-jerk reaction down would recover.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another early test of the 57.00 buy signal Thursday was again unable to break higher. The week’s early downside test won’t be rejected without closing above 57.00, so early trending Friday would be likely to extend in that direction.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was muted, despite not greeting the news from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s fresh low was early and recovered quickly back into the prior session’s range, keeping alive the 1.1350 buy signal if triggered through a close.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow hovering at recent lows for a third consecutive session without yet trying to bounce now makes at least some probe of a fresh low likely before a recovery attempt can be credible.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still hovering at recent lows for a third consecutive session now makes a dip to 15.00 likely before reversing up would be credible for gaining traction.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already recovering above Monday’s high on Tuesday had created potential for testing 145-05, which was attacked to within 1 tick Wednesday. A second consecutive higher close on Thursday would greet Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of strength. Otherwise, an intraday retest of Sunday night’s 143-17 low would be likely.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
One-week old uptrending support was already being overlapped before Wednesday’s open, and persisted intraday. Almost any initial strength Thursday or even overnight would be credible for at least retesting the 57.00 buy signal, which at this stage of the pattern should resolve in a breakout.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Piercing 2.89 overnight and pre-open still didn’t extend higher intraday, continuing to suggest caution of a deeper pullback which would be credible for extending down. But at least Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of weakness.