Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping Monday back down to the two-week old 1.1333 buy signal had held through the close. But its reaction never even attacked the 1.1375 buy signal before probing lower to attack 1.1300 Tuesday. Back above 1.1350 Wednesday would be compelling for long-entry, but the burden of proof would still be on buyers.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Slightly lower lows overnight were recovered back into Monday’s range Tuesday, but not extended as the potential for an Island bottom becomes less. So, the bullish scenario would bounce temporarily before a second upleg could gain traction.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Narrow flat-to-lower-to-flat ranging Tuesday kept the recent decline from extending through support 15.10, and keeps alive potential for recovering 15.40 to launch a recovery.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s bounce to resistance had seemed obligatory considering the flight-to-safety. Tuesday’s reaction down wasn’t substantial, but doesn’t negate the potential for dipping deeper to retest Sunday night’s lows.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s early test of the 57.00 buy signal wasn’t any more successful than Monday’s, or any more consequential as the balance of the session only ranged sideways again. The post-close API and Wednesday EIA report aren’t being greeted from a position of strength, but not from a position of weakness either.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Sunday night’s fresh high testing 2.89 had been isolated by Monday’s open, and not revisited until Monday night. Its retest was also isolated, and not repeated post-open. This setup undermines the upside potential for being unable to exploit the strength, and would be bearish if its reaction were extended down.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already lacking a bullish excuse to further delay resuming the rally, Sunday night’s dip was exacerbated Monday to fully retest the 1.1333 original buy signal to attack 1.1320. The buy signal’s minimum objective was met already, but holding its test on this pullback may allow another buy signal to form.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s dip fulfilled the likelihood for extending to another fresh low before being able to signal momentum reversing up. Monday’s open under the likely 1290.00 support extended down to 1284.00 to allow a close back above 1290.00 to signal a bottom is forming.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The most bullish path lower would have bounced first Sunday night or Monday before probing fresh lows, but fresh lows were already being probed at Monday’s open and the 15.10 objective was met and held. Back above 15.40 would signal the trend reversing back up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only a little further weakness was required Sunday night to fulfill the retest of prior lows at 143-22. That was greeted by a catalyst for rallying in a “flight-to-safety” as the stock market’s gap up reversed into a collapse Monday morning. But its high held the prior pattern’s 144-14 low as resistance, which does not qualify as reversing momentum up.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming into Monday was capable of resuming the rally, but not yet assured since Friday’s low had filled the outstanding gap below only nominally. An early test of the 57.00 buy signal held as the session only ranged sideways.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing higher Sunday night was erased before Monday’s open, and the session only ranged narrowly. The pattern can’t tolerate any delay to resuming the rally at this stage of the setup if upside momentum remains intact.