Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday still had not resumed the rally, despite Thursday’s pre-open warning short and not yettrying to probe lower. The rally isn’t required to extend, already having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective, but any fresh high above 1.1425 would be credible for extending higher.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s return to the 1317.00 original buy signal found only obligatory support before extending overnight to gap down Friday to 1307.50 prior lows and extend lower intraday to 1297.00. An immediate reversal up is unlikely, but any hesitation that appears to be bottoming would be credible for launching a recovery.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednedsay’s return to the original 15.75 buy signal did not prevent Thursday’s break lower, and Thursday’s attack on the two-week old opening gap down at 15.60 didn’t satisfy selling pressure. Extending lower overnight gapped down Friday under 15.55 and extended sharply lower to probe under 15.25. No immediate recovery is likely without first forming a bottom over 2-3 sessions.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Breaking under the pattern’s last relative low at 145-16 Wednesday had confirmed momentum reversing down, which quickly fulfilled its minimum target of retracing the entire pattern’s 145-00 low. Neutralizing its attraction Thursday didn’t prevent gapping down Friday to attack the next objective at 144-08 to within a quarter-point, albeit unlikely to hold as support.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing last Friday’s high overnight to attack 57.90 was retraced to open flat Friday, and firmed only briefly before reversing down sharply. The low filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 55.60 close, but only hovered there instead of rejecting it or breaking lower. Stopping pessimistically short of thoroughly testing the gap does suggest it will be probed before a recovery can be credible.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The reaction to Thursday’s EIA report was absorbed and the rally was free to resume without further delay, which it did Friday by extending to a fresh high. Trending intraday to fresh extremes on Fridays in this product tends to extend coming out of the weekend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not at all prohibited from resuming the rally, Thursday’s open was greeted by strength to a fresh highs. But it disappeared quickly as the balance of the session hovered in negative territory. Any initial strength Friday would be credible for extending higher into the weekend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Pulling back to “lower prior highs” proved insufficient to launch a recovery, as Thursday dipped even deeper to 1314.50. The 1327.50 buy signal remains unchanged, although its test becomes likelier.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows Thursday don’t enable lowering the buy signal, but the pattern should include a bounce back up to 15.80 regardless of whether its resistance will hold.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reversal wasn’t rejected overnight as Thursday slid through 145-16 to test the 145-00 last relative low. The intraday lower low doesn’t yet qualify as a minimum probe of the prior low, and a buy signal is unlikely to develop soon in this pattern.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-lower ranging Thursday didn’t exploit Wednesday’s hesitation at the gap-fill, further suggesting the pattern would resolve up.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength enabled recovering after the gap up had reacted down. But the rally has yet improved.