Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having just fulfilled its minimum third higher close to satisfy last week’s confirmed breakout, another session of backing-and-filling Wednesday would not necessarily undermine the rally. But the bullish pattern shouldn’t further delay fresh highs Thursday and preferably also into the weekend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The reaction down from meeting last week’s target extended even deeper Wednesday, filling a gap at 1323.00 and testing “lower prior highs” at 1318.50. A new buy signal can be calculated at 1326.50 that would target 1345.00-1347.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows at 15.65 now allow a close back above 15.80 to trigger a rally leg targeting 16.16. Another lower close to the current pullback would be difficult to launch a near-term recovery.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s probe back above the 146-12 buy signal had closed at its intraday upper-end, leaving no room for delay to extending higher for a bullish resolution. Reacting down instead Wednesday was vulnerable to rejecting the larger recovery attempt, and price extended down sharply to attack 145-18. Almost any lower close Thursday would shift the pattern to distributive and the trend to down.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s post-close reaction to API had spiked up to touch the 56.15 buy signal. Already firming before Wednesday’s open, the morning’s reaction to its EIA report extended the recovery to fill the gap back up to Friday’s 57.25 high close, still having no reason to further delay resuming the rally to new highs.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s gap down dipped to 2.73 filled the gap back to Friday’s close and reversed back into positive territory at 2.80. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still firming Tuesday since completing its pullback, but with restrained optimism that suggests a break higher could almost literally explode to the upside.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Backing-and-filling persisted Tuesday, still hovering at or under its 1328.50-1333.00 pullback limit and likely to resolve up and test unfinished business above.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s pullback low held the 15.80 “lower prior highs” whose recovery had confirmed the prior upleg and target in-play. This pullback has no time limit, but there is no lower requirement and no reason to further delay launching a credible rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping right back up to the 146-12 buy signal Tuesday extended higher without delay to retest Friday’s high up to 146-27. And unlike Friday’s prior test, indicated to end the day at the upper-end of its range rather than lower. Interim dips have probed relevant support without attracting reinforcements or otherwise confirming their reversal attempts. Repeatedly recovering suggests the pattern still intends to resolve in a new upleg above 147-00.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s extended pullback had probed under the 55.85-56.05 pullback limit. Not confirming with a second consecutive lower close helps to suggest the reaction was only temporary. Closing back above 56.10 as soon as Tuesday remains entirely credible for resuming the rally to fresh recovery highs.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Apr which trades at a 4-cent discount to Mar]… Gapping up Tuesday began retracing immediately, leaving it to a positive close either to fulfill an already confirmed breakout, or else to confirm a borderline breakout and require another positive close to fulfill it.