Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Weaker on its own data and in sympathy with the Pound’s gap down, Friday’s lower close confirmed Thursday’s breakout, next targeting 1.1111 and 1.1095.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Friday to 1277.00 extended more than $10 lower to test the 1269.50 level whose break would signal a more substantial downleg underway. Closing back above 1277.00 would otherwise launch a recovery.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply lower lows overnight gapped down Friday to Thursday’s 17.28 low and extended lower to 17.15. Closing back above 17.35 would signal the decline had ended and momentum is reversing up. There’s still room down to 17.05 before signaling a more substantial downleg underway.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The 154-24 bounce limit was tested at Thursday night’s high before reversing back down to fresh lows Friday morning. Rejecting an intraday bounce is always optimal, so holding the 153-29 sell signal through Friday’s close makes a bigger bounce likely.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s fresh low wasn’t rejected Friday, and instead held 46.20 whose recovery would have launched an intraday rally. The delay now requires either surging early Monday, or else recovering from an intraday probe of fresh lows.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow ranging avoided closing above 3.09 where a recovery could be signaled. Much further delay than Monday morning would be likely at least to probe fresh lows before bottoming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s reaction to the ECB policy statement was muted, but it triggered a signal under 1.1235. A second consecutive lower close on Friday would confirm the trend has reversed down. Closing back above 1.1285 would instead launch a new upleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The corrective potential down to 1285.00 was fulfilled overnight to gap open there Thursday. That was already $8-9 of selling. Then came a $12-13 plunge down to 1273.50. So, an Island has formed from two sessions instead of from only one. It requires eventual retest and fresh highs above 1300.00. And it’s recovery is likelier sooner rather than later so long as 1269.50 holds as support.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s overnight dip had filled the gap back to Friday’s 17.55 close. Thursday’s deeper pre-open dip repeated it unnecessarily, before post-open action plunged under 17.30. Closing above 17.40-17.45 keeps alive near-term potential for recovering, and for extending to fulfill 17.90.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The reaction down from Wednesday’s fulfillment of 154-10 extended deeper Thursday morning. Support was found upon testing the rally’s 153-29/154-02 objective. Its test presents a good opportunity for  small bounce to 154-24 for correcting this week’s dip, where a durable downleg would be more credible to begin without suddenly accelerating its pace.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down slightly Thursday to a fresh low under 45.30 was recovered immediately back into positive territory. Now filling the gap from above would neutralize its attraction below, which would be bullish if avoiding a second consecutive lower close confirming Wednesday’s breakout.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t being greeted from a position of strength due to the gap outstanding from Monday’s 2.98 low close. The knee-jerk reaction blipped-down to fill the gap, and then reversed back up into positive territory.