Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday to test the 1.1235 sell signal was recovered to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s close, and to retest 1.1285 resistance.  Two more swings in the range left it intact, and likely to break soon.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s gap down to Tuesday’s 1293.50 low was recovered to 1296.50 resistance, which then reacted back down to the open’s low. An actual correction down to 1284.50 remains possible, and likely if Thursday’s open has further delayed resuming the rally to probe prior highs above 1300.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight lows filled the gap back down to Friday’s 17.55 close before recovering back into the interim range, all but requiring no further delay in resuming the rally to the 17.90 target.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight eventually dipped back toward Monday’s close without launching a downleg. But further delaying the rally through Thursday would become even likelier to reverse the trend down next.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s shallow dip and shallow recovery from probing under Friday’s low had been exploited by Tuesday’s rally. But that had held “higher prior lows” at the original sell signal. A negative knee-jerk reaction to Wednesday’s EIA report was possible within the bottoming context. But the reaction extended a weak open to more than a $2 drop attacking 45.90, which is $1 under Monday’s low. No bottom has formed.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday to 3.09 resistance reacted back down to Tuesday’s close, still leaving open the gap back down to Monday’s close, which greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s flat open firmed throughout the day, essentially filling the gap back up to Friday’s close and retesting its test of 1.1285. Any higher would resume the rally, but closing back under 1.1235 would launch a downleg.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply to the next higher resistance range at 1296.50-1298.50 essentially requires probing April’s highs above 1300.00. But the resistance is substantial, and testing it by gapping up often requires backing-and-filling before extending higher. A pullback has room down to 1285.50 while still maintaining the rally’s momentum.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already probing higher at Tuesday’s open, the next higher objective at 17.90 has gotten closer. The steady pace of its attraction doesn’t make downdrafts any likelier, but it does make downdrafts likelier to be relatively shallow and easily recovered.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s backing-and-filling could be dismissed for Friday having fulfilled its longstanding objective and then exceeding it through the close. The pullback still had some room below before recovering, but already extended the rally before Tuesday’s open. Now fresh highs are testing the next higher resistance at 155-10. Closing back under 154-14 would start to signal another reversal down forming.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s probe under Friday’s low down to 46.87 was shallower than would have been optimal for forming a bottom. But it held nonetheless, and now Tuesday afternoon is attacking Monday’s 48.07 high. That’s also nearing the gap back up to Thursday’s 48.15 sell signal. Its recovery would confirm momentum is reversing up, but there should be little if any delay.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday confirms a bottom hasn’t yet formed. That seems counter-intuitive considering the strength, but its sponsorship is weak-handed since it leaves outstanding a gap below wanting to be filled. Neutralizing its attraction would allow a recovery.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday suggested that Friday’s close above 1.1255 was not actually resuming the rally. Closing under 1.1235 would confirm, by signaling momentum is reversing down.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh highs Monday on geopolitical concerns in the Gulf didn’t run higher, and the session ultimately tested April’s “higher prior lows” around 1284.00. Closing higher Tuesday — if not just avoiding a negative close — would suggest a probe above April’s highs is underway.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s probe above Friday’s high qualifies somewhat as a breakout. Simply avoiding a reversal down Tuesday would make the 17.90 attraction above likely to be tested next, regardless of the pattern’s ultimate resolution.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having fulfilled its longstanding target in the 154-00 area on Friday — and then extending well beyond it through the close — there is room for a pullback to test 154-00 as support. If tested, then trapping shorts would be a function of its reversal. The more abrupt and substantial, the likelier that new highs are in-play.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Geopolitical unrest in the Gulf triggered overnight gains but they were retraced entirely into negative territory. Monday’s dip under Friday’s lows didn’t extend, perhaps a little too shallowly to be confident that shorts are trapped, but not still credible for a bottom if Tuesday were to follow-through with the reversal. Otherwise, the downtrend remains intact.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentarily probing a fresh low Monday down to 2.93 doesn’t change whether a bottom is forming, because the selling pressure was too nominal to have trapped shorts, despite recovering into positive territory. There is no new signal..