Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Holding the bearish pattern’s 11255 bounce limit Wednesday resolved by gapping down Thursday, but not deteriorating much intraday despite being free to resume the decline and leave no “unfinished business above.”

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding overnight and back into the failed Ascending Triangle gapped down $10 to prove the relevance of 1277.00 resistance that was attacked Wednesday to within 2 dimes. Probing a little lower intraday was recovered back above the open, which suggests that filling the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1265.00 close will try to inhibit the pattern’s collapse.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down sharply overnight once proved that Wednesday’s intraday recovery had held resistance and neutralized the upside attraction by filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s close. The overnight low held post-open retests that launched an intraday recovery. Friday’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength for having a gap outstanding above.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sill no reason to much delay extending higher, although Wednesday’s rally did create some room for constructive backing-and-filling. An overnight dip essentially held “lower prior highs” and recovered back up to the opening print, but no higher intraday as the balance of the session ranged.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Back under 48.15 would have resumed the decline. But Thursday’s reaction to the delayed EIA report was more intent to test the 49.25 sell signal as resistance, if not also to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 49.65 close. Closing above 49.85 would still be credible foe launching a rally.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of probing sharply lower fresh lows and bouncing shallowly overnight into Thursday’s open didn’t prevent a negative knee-jerk reaction to the EIA report from probing under 3.00. The confirmed breakout’s minimum third lower close requirement is satisfied, but no bottom is forming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight and firming post-open tested the 1.1255 bounce limit Wednesday, which must hold to maintain potential for another downleg to the next lower corrective target at 1.10995. Above 1.1285 would start signaling another upleg underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday instead of extending Tuesday’s gap down all but ensured retesting Friday’s high up to 1277.00-1278.25 before the Ascending Triangle pattern can collapse. Extending higher intraday attacked the bounce target’s lower-end.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s out-performance was offset by greeting Wednesday baking-and-filling. Ultimately, the session closed flat, not confirming the rally is intact.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
[Rolling coverage forward to Sep which trades at a 1-11 discount to Jun] With still no bullish excuse to delay extending the rally effort, Tuesday night’s backing-and-filling was recovered ahead of Wednesday’s open and extended to fresh highs through the morning, still targeting 154-02.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Touching both ends of the 49.25 and 49.85 range Tuesday had failed to trigger trending either way. Wednesday’s pre-open slide resolved the delay by gapping down and trending lower through the morning to test 47.75. A second consecutive lower close on Thursday would confirm at least an eventual third lower close outstanding.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s break under 3.30 extended down sharply Wednesday to 3.06, compensating for the delay in finally fulfilling the longstanding objective. Regardless of its degree, the second consecutive lower close from a multi-session range confirms the breakout, and now requires at least one more eventual lower close.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The initial downside objective at 1.1111 was attacked closely enough Monday night to at least push price back up within Friday’s range. And apparently only that hard, as that’s where the balance of the session ranged. Resuming the decline would next target 1.1000.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Aug, which is trading at a $3.30 premium to Jun] Gapping down Tuesday worked to trap Friday’s gap up that had failed to extend higher. Closing under 1259.00 would begin to signal momentum reversing down, confirmed under 1255.00. Meanwhile, even a to has room to probe a fresh high above 1272.00.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down slightly Tuesday was quickly held and consolidated before a late-morning surge to fresh highs at 17.46. If left intact, the rally’s next higher objective is 17.95. Otherwise, closing under 17.20 would reverse the trend down.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Actually probing a fresh relative high Tuesday had no reason not to extend higher, and has no reason not to continue extending higher Wednesday. Last week’s dips at least had trapped shorts, but now actually rallying must prove that sellers are done.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s dip barely touched 49.05 support before firming through the balance of the session. But it did not recover 49.85, which would start to trigger a new upleg instead of resuming the decline.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday finally fulfilled the longstanding objective for a new low close under 3.20 that a confirmed breakout had triggered weeks earlier. Compensation for the delay suggests at least 1-2 sessions of lower lows, although not necessarily consecutive.