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Bigger Picture – Page 231 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 31, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: The holiday-shortened week continues to make the econ calendar a little more dense, but not much more influential. Any noticeable reaction to the pre-open Fed speaker is likely to be duplicated by the post-open PMI. Don’t forget that PMI is released privately to its institutional subscribers several minutes before the public gets it. And reaction to both is usually similar. The afternoon’s Beige Book is influential, too — and often inhibits price action just before its release.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

Robert Kaplan Speaks
8:00 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET

*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET

Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue May 30, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: This week’s calendar will seem packed, because of some reports being rescheduled during the holiday-shortened week. So, Tuesday is busy, but with only report that has a track record for influencing price action. It’s likely to duplicate any reaction to either pre-open report.

Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET

S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET

*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET

State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET

Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-higher firming Thursday stopped short of 1.1255 resistance which must hold to maintain the topping pattern that is targeting gaps below at 1.1115 and 1.1000.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Totally avoiding 1252.00 Thursday spent the entire session fluctuating around 1256.00, not signaling the current range’s resolution either way.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s ranging remained with the recent range, above last week’s prior highs, but still neither resuming the rally, nor rejecting it.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-higher Thursday isn’t optimal for the pattern that otherwise has no bullish excuse to further delay resuming its rally.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
cl_052517The rally’s minimum objective had been met already. Gapping down Thursday to test 50.70 held well above the 50.08 overnight low that was triggered by OPEC news. Bouncing filled the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, neutralizing its attraction, and resolving down to fresh lows at 48.75. Closing under 49.25 and not recovering 49.75 would start to signal the trend reversing back down.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jul, which trades at a 9-cent premium to Jun] Wednesday’s recovery back up to 3.30 was followed by Thursday’s gap up, which immediately began reversing down through to the lowest levels in weeks at 3.24. Fresh lows under 3.20 remain in-play.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri May 26, 2017

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Friday’s calendar is busy, high-profile, and reliable for influencing price action. More so, the reaction to a pre-open report like Durable Goods will likely repeat in reaction to a post-open report like Consumer Sentiment. Afternoon activity may become subdued ahead of the three-day holiday weekend.

Robert Kaplan Speaks
Thu 6:00 PM ET

James Bullard Speaks
Thu 10:00 PM ET

*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET

GDP
8:30 AM ET

Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET

*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET

Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET

John Williams speaks on Sunday
8:15 PM ET