Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s narrow ranging didn’t reassert the uptrend, which price action through Tuesday had suggested was topping and at least ready to correct back down.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s post-close dip to 1252.00 was probed overnight but then retested Wednesday morning. Closing under would confirm the bounce is not extending higher.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
After failing to confirm Monday’s breakout attempt, Tuesday night’s dip filled the gap back down to last Wednesday’s Island. It was largely recovered before the open, but not reversed up, leaving no signal.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
With little excuse to further delay resuming the rally to 155-13, Wednesday’s initial dip to the range’s lower-end could have been defensive posturing ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC minutes release. The reaction didn’t extend up, so the patern still needs positive close to at least confirm the basing intends to resolve up.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s close ultimately did fulfill the confirmed breakout’s minimum requirement for at least one fresh high close. That greeted Wednesday’s EIA from a position of strength, which reacted up to a fresh high at 51.88. The gain was retraced through the close, suggesting the upside momentum had lapsed.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s immediate break under 3.21 was recovered to avoid confirming the target at 3.11 and lower is again underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back up to Monday’s open (circled green) is not arbitrary, since the interim low touched Friday’s “lower prior highs” (red highlight). Now a corrective drop may begin forming, if not a top.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s gap and test of Wednesday’s high didn’t extend higher Tuesday, and held 1261.50 “higher prior lows”  (circled green). But now more relevant than 1256.00 support is the 1252.00 inflection point whose break would launch a new downleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday morning initially extended Monday’s break above last Wednesday’s high, but only temporarily as the session dipped back into negative territory. Not confirming the break would be unusual in this pattern, and consequently bearish. Otherwise, the pattern may begin behaving as if May’s retraced dip has sealed a bottom.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Last Wednesday’s 154-12 high was touched again for the first time since the intervening consolidation. Its break would signal the 155-13 objective above is in-play. There is little excuse to further delay the rally.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
While Monday’s confirmation of Friday’s breakout now requires at least a third eventual higher close, Tuesday did not so much extend the rally as sustained it. There is potential for extending to test 53.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s attack of 3.34 “higher prior lows” to within a penny reacted down Tuesday, testing 3.25. Its break would signal the decline targeting fresh lows under 3.11 and lower is underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trending up Friday made fresh highs likely Monday morning, but didn’t prevent their rejection. The gap up was maintained, just short of resistance at 1.0286.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Monday tested 2356.00, the level that had failed to support Wednesday’s reaction down from 2361.50 “higher prior lows.” Monday extended back up to 2361.50, which must be rejected Tuesday back under 1250.50 to resume the decline.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s spike up through Wednesday’s high didn’t so much negate the Island pattern as ended it. Islands are always retested eventually, either to resume the trend or to end it. Holding the retest of Wednesday’s high would end the trend, which is the recent rally. Closing above it may seal a bottom, needing only the confirmation of also closing higher Tuesday.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday was greeted by firming that threatened to end the two-day consolidation and resume the rally. The gap back to the 155-13 high remains the objective.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Monday all but confirmed Friday’s breakout from a multi-session range. If not rejected immediately, then “higher prior lows” at 53.00 are in-play.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Sunday night was maintained into Monday’s open, exceeding Friday’s 3.27 high and extending the detour on the way to fresh lows. The next opportunity to resume the decline would come from “higher prior lows” at 3.34.