Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Another narrowly fluctuating session Wednesday doesn’t change the likelihood of probing fresh highs, although the delay does start to suggest a knee-jerk reaction down may appear first.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s flat close had avoided confirming Monday’s breakout, so no lower close was required. Wednesday morning did probe fresh lows anyway, attacking 1245.50. Closing back above 1254.50 would suggest the decline is lapsing, but a recovery still relies on closing above 2359.00

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Eleven days of the Up/Dow-crash setup finally broke forcibly Wednesday, down. Unless 17.05 were recovered through the next close, 15.95 is in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Narrow ranging ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement hovered just under the 153-12 buy signal.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
RSIs diverged positively on Wednesday’s retest of Tuesday’s fresh low down to 47.30. Closing above 48.10 would now start to suggest another bottoming pattern is trying to form. But the actual reversal signal is still no lower than 49.30 until there is more complexity at the low.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Wednesday back above the original 3.21 sell signal didn’t recover a prior high that might have greeted Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. A fresh low close under 3.11 remains outstanding.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s narrow inside day still hasn’t fulfilled a likely probe of fresh highs, and it’s already too late to reject at least a fresh high except to correct the rally.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially trying to extend this week’s drop probed a couple of dollars under Monday’s low to attack 1252.50. Closing above 1259.00 would signal the drop had ended, but under 1251.50 could extend it considerably.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming ahead of Tuesday’s open touched the 17.02 resistance before dipping to momentarily pierce under Monday’s low down to 16.80. The break did not trigger a collapse, leaving open the potential for recovering sharply in the Up/Down-crash setup.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday extended the bounce to a full point off of Monday’s low taht fulfilled the ~151-21 target. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday above the 152-08 bounce limit would confirm the trend had reversed up, at which point pullbacks must hold 152-14.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The bottoming potential may be done as Tuesday dipped back to Thursday’s low, which at least Monday’s dip had managed to avoid. And momentum never reversed up by closing above 49.30 or 50.00, although that would still get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially bouncing Tuesday up to 3.27 was reversed back under Monday’s low to 3.19, and back under the 3.21 sell signal whose prior confirmation already requires at least one close under 3.11.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s inside day wasn’t predictive, but it also didn’t challenge the ongoing pattern’s likelihood of producing at least a brief retest of last week’s high.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The ongoing delay in rallying while having only barely touched the 1261.00 area resulted in fresh lows Monday down to 1255.00. Closing back above 1259.00 would signal the break lower had held, and that momentum was revering up. There is otherwise little more nearby support below.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh lows into Monday’s open chipped away at 17.09 which must hold for the pullback to be defined as only a temporary correction. It was broken sharply intraday down to 16.81. Meanwhile, the Up/Down-crash setup has reached 11 consecutive sessions of closing lower, with one allowable exception. And reversing up would be temporary if not recovering 17.23.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s fresh low split the 2-tick difference between the long-standing target, fulfilling it down to 151-21. The bounce limit is now 152-08 to maintain the downside momentum. Otherwise, a recovery back up to 155-13 can begin to form.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The week began under pressure, probing under Friday’s lows, but not trending down or attacking Wednesday’s prior low. Closing above 50.00 would still signal a bottom is forming.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 3.30 high was pierced momentarily Sunday night. But slipping into Monday’s open was extended intraday to retest Thursday’s 3.21 low. At least one new low close under 3.12 remains outstanding.