Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday afternoon’s fresh lows made fresh lows likely Monday, too. They were probed only briefly before closing positive to suggest a near-term bottom is forming. Closing higher Tuesday could avoid extending down to 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows Sunday night retested the original 1252.00 buy signal as support. Geopolitical unease triggered another surge attacking the 1262.00 resistance — which held — whose recovering would signal the rally had resumed.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s plunge was extended a little deeper overnight, avoiding a second consecutive lower close while still testing 17.90 support. But the 18.20 inflection point must still be recovered to signal momentum is already reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing and teasing the 151-12 sell signal Sunday night ultimately produced a shallow bounce Monday morning, probably enabled by a flight-to-safety among geopolitical unease. There is little reason to further delay a break lower.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Mid-East concerns enabled the rally to extend to within 40 cents of its minimum 53.55 target Monday. There is no pullback limit to keep the target in-play, but a pullback to 50.65 would be likely next if Tuesday were to probe any fresh high intraday and close negative.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still no reliable pattern yet formed, as Monday morning weakened a little back into the recent range.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 11, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday morning’s JOLTS might be interesting. Friday’s government report on payrolls differed from Wednesday’s ADP number. The deviation was attributed to different polling questions, but it will be interesting if JOLTS strays, too.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:45 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/8/17) … The big picture gets bigger.
This week introduces the quarterly earnings onslaught into the political undercurrents and geopolitical overt actions. It will be a lot for four days to absorb — the market is closed on Good Friday. A brief window is open to allow a downleg to begin before the traditional seasonal holiday influence tries to close that door. The alternative would likely begin a recovery to new highs. Meanwhile, intraday volatility is going to keep things interesting. All of which we discuss in this weekend’s Saturday Review…
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SBUX, GDX, KO, CCL, LW, RH, ASPS, VZ, WYN, RAD, XHB, XLY, S, AMD, AMZN, TSLA, EGDFF, CTT
Saturday Review Link
SPECIAL NOTE: If you haven’t yet, please test the Adobe chaRTroom software well before the Saturday Review. Last-minute assistance won’t be available — it’s linked here. Thank you!
.Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After an ongoing delay and teasing of the pullback limit, breaking lower overnight extended down Friday to greet the weekend probing lower, now targeting 1.0550.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close recovery above the 1252.50 buy signal and Thursday’s gap above it kept the pattern poised for a very favorable reaction to the overnight missile strikes. Surging into Friday’s open extended to test 1273.00, but that was retraced back down to Thursday’s 1256.00 “lower prior highs” as support. So, Monday’s confirmed buy signal still requires at least one more fresh high close. The pullback has room down to 1254.50 to maintain upside momentum, and now also a structural attraction above — Friday’s 1265.00 gap up down above all prior highs should be filled.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday probed above 18.30, which closing above would have confirmed a probe above 18.55 remains in-play. But reversing down closed back at or within Thursday’s range.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Global unease enabled an overnight rally to probe above prior highs up to 153-04. It was nevertheless rejected to close under 152-02, maintaining the topping pattern, which closing under 151-12 would signal is starting to rollover.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Did spiking up overnight to 52.95 on the missile strike overcome Thursday’s “ineffectual optimism”? It was retraced into Friday’s open, but closing above or below 52.40 would either clear the path to the 53.55 target, or else enable a pullback to 50.65.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength hasn’t been any more bullish than to prevent a deep reaction down. Friday’s intraday weakness was yet to shallow to signal momentum reversing down.