Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s late blip-down to a fresh low didn’t quickly prove itself Thursday to have been a false break. The range’s lower-end was still tested, instead of at least probing back above 1.0725.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday morning retraced only some of Wednesday’s post-close surge back above 1252.00, the confirmed buy signal that had been broken intraday.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Recovering after Wednesday’s close to probe back above 18.30 was retraced shallowly overnight, and Thursday hesitated in resuming the recovery.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction to FOMC Minutes had surged back up to the rally’s original 152-02 target, but reacted down overnight. Initially firming Thursday morning also reacted down, attacking the 151-12 sell signal that had been thoroughly tested Wednesday. .

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Only a slightly lower low overnight tried to extend Wednesday’s negative reaction to the EIA report. Thursday’s open gapped up within Wednesday’s range, but rallied only to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s open. That’s ineffectual optimism, and can’t afford to delay extending higher if a deeper corrective dip will be avoided.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, already closing above prior highs. Fresh highs intraday rewarded that strength, but the pattern still isn’t tracking a template that can forecast the pattern’s resolution.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still fluctuating around the 1.0690 pullback limit had begun taking too long to rely on it holding, let alone launching a recovery. Hovering at the five-day range’s lower-end Wednesday is vulnerable to breaking lower.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Tuesday’s second consecutive higher close confirming Monday’s breakout above 1252.00, Wednesday’s open gapped down back under 1252.00 and probed lower to 1245.50. Closing lower Thursday would signal momentum reversing down, but the rally otherwise remains intact.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fluctuating around 18.30 Wednesday probed under Tuesday’s low, which had already filled the gap back down to Monday’s close. Rallying has no excuse not to be underway through Thursday morning.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down to the 151-12 sell signal initially extended to attack the previous 150-26 sell signal before bouncing to fill the gap back up to Tuesday’s 151-21 close. There is no unfinished business above to inhibit reversing down.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Wednesday extended the 48.50 buy signal to test 51.88, a little too aggressive at this stage to avoid reacting down on the morning’s EIA report. Filling the gap back down to Tuesday’s 51.03 close held, leaving outstanding the gap up to help resume the rally targeting 53.55.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s surge to fresh highs was so unnecessary that it could only mean higher highs would follow, which they did on Wednesday. It’s not a breakout and confirmation, but still a big enough departure from the distributive template that the pattern’s predictability is unreliable.