Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday bounced to fill the gap up to Thursday’s 1.0615 open, and then probed slightly higher to 1.0630 resistance. Its reaction down attacked the 1.0585 bounce limit, which must be retraced without delay to launch a final downleg targeting 1.0470.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday morning’s fresh highs attacking 1265.00 were retraced but under 12259.00, threatening not fulfill the eventual third higher close that was put into play by last week’s confirmed breakout.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Although its confirmed breakout was not optimal, Monday’s early strength tried to fulfill the requirement for an eventual third higher close. testing 18.47 was reversed back under Friday’s 18.39 high.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap up and extension didn’t follow-through Monday morning. Dipping into the afternoon was contained within Friday’s range, which only fails to confirm the breakout, but doesn’t reverse momentum down.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night only attacked last week’s highs, and Monday only fluctuated around 54.25. The sell signal remains at 53.58.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night probed slightly lower to retrace into last Tuesday night’s inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. A probe under its 2.64 low is still required before a bottom can be credible.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 28, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The week gets busy Tuesday for econ reports. High-profile pre-open and post-open reports are only influential post-open. The Chicago PMI tends to generate a reaction among its institutional subscribers that is duplicated when released publicly. And any pre-open reaction is likely to be duplicated, too. The two afternoon Fed speakers probably won’t be very influential to price action.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Esther George Speaks
12:45 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:30 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/25/17) … Ruh-roh.
The holiday-shortened week started out on a high note, and then went nowhere — fast. Gapping up and extending higher Tuesday morning quickly established the range’s upper-end by attacking the rally’s 2365.00-2366.00 objective. The balance of the week ranged choppily sideways. Choppily, not noisily, the difference being in its singular legs back-and-forth between opposite ends of the range. Without any recovery closing above the range’s upper-end, but still retracing it, we view buyers as the weak hands. Which means that strong hands are distributing. Ruh-roh.
This week’s Saturday Review explains that relationship in slightly greater detail. At least, with charts. We also compare relative behaviors among the major indexes, and find something not seen for awhile. Something very revealing to the rally’s health. And then several requested stocks (listed below) are analyzed.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
FCX, X, NUE, IBB, AMD, AVGO, AAPL, GS, BID, JPM, TGT, CRM, BBY
02/25/2017 09:31:54 David B: Good Morning
02/25/2017 09:31:56 Bill G: good
02/25/2017 09:32:30 Mark Glezer: gm
02/25/2017 09:34:13 Mark Glezer: 2500?
02/25/2017 09:43:21 Mark Glezer: what is the likeliest ?
02/25/2017 09:54:35 Bill G: State of the Union may be a good catalyst for some kind of either change in direction or acceleration?
02/25/2017 09:55:02 Bill G: y
02/25/2017 09:57:54 David B: FCX,X
02/25/2017 10:03:37 Bill G: IBB
02/25/2017 10:05:33 David B: with the dow up some many days is this index in an up crash?. is this telling us something about the market when this is happening?
02/25/2017 10:06:36 David B: AMD,AVGO
02/25/2017 10:12:37 Mark Glezer: we had super low VIX for months now, do you see this changing anytime soon consdering the normal few months market cycles that end with a spike in VIX?
02/25/2017 10:17:43 Mark Glezer: just volatility in general
02/25/2017 10:17:53 Mark Glezer: right
02/25/2017 10:25:53 Mark Glezer: thx much
02/25/2017 10:26:09 Bill G: Have a good one
02/25/2017 10:26:27 David B: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Recovering from repeated intraday drops. Meanwhile, hovering at new highs throughout the holiday-shortened week. Something big seems to be brewing, and there are a couple of likely paths that we’ll discuss.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday was quickly retraced back down to the 1.0585 bounce limit that Thursday had only fluctuated narrowly around, maintaining the downside momentum targeting 1.0470.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying overnight gapped up Friday to immediately fulfill the 1259.00 objective. Probing higher was retraced back down to attack Thursday’s range. The second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, requiring at least an eventual third higher close.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s gap up extended higher through the morning. Thursday’s test of the 18.18 objective was a fresh high close, but not an optimal breakout while still ranging around prior highs. But the burden of proof is on sellers to avoid trending higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s optimism may have been ineffectual for not trending higher, but Friday’s open compensated for the delay by gapping up through 152-06 resistance and then trending higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a much bigger rally underway. Closing back under 151-11 would instead launch a steep decline.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s gap down finished off Thursday’s failure to extend its gap up. Friday’s gap down also attacked Wednesday’s test of the 53.68 sell signal that had only been ranged narrowly around.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
With room above to 2.86 as noise, and an attraction to probe under Tuesday night’s new lows at 2.65, Friday’s session only ranged narrowly sideways.