Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Unlike last week’s instance of a similar setup, Wednesday’s key-reversal did not extend higher overnight. Thursday morning did firm a little above or around its 1.0565 bounce limit.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Early-morning comments triggered a surge that gapped up Thursday to fresh highs. And having just retraced Tuesday’s recovery by 61.8% Wednesday, the correction has likely refueled the rally to put its 1259.00 target into play. Closing under 1243.50 would signal instead that momentum is reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday fulfilled the longstanding 18.18 objective. Closing above prior highs would also put into play an extended target at 18.72. Closing under 17.95 would signal that momentum is reversing down, instead

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Another close at 151-11 Wednesday resulted in another overnight rally back to 152-26 resistance. Another bounce wasn’t required in order to resume the decline, but it’s interesting the redundant bounce didn’t extend higher and only ranged narrowly above 151-11 — ineffectual optimism.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday to the 53.58 sell signal and only fluctuating narrowly at it all day was reversed overnight to gap up Thursday. Attacking Tuesday’s prior highs up to 55.00 still didn’t extend higher, so no breakout formed.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying even further overnight exacerbated the non-strong position that greeted Thursday morning’s EIA report. Two tests of 2.80 resolved down to 2.71, still likely to test Tuesday night’s 2.64 low.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down to a fresh low Wednesday and extended to attack 1.0500 was reversed back above Tuesday’s close to test the 1.0585 bounce limit in positive territory. This once again leaves a gap below all prior lows that wants to be retested from above. The last instance took an immediate and sizable detour, making this instance likelier to resolve down sooner.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s recovery from gapping down had neutralized the attraction above at the gap back up to Friday’s close. Without extending higher immediately, Wednesday was vulnerable to retracing the recovery. The sell signal had been adjusted up to 1233.50 and was tested Wednesday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
No new sponsorship emerged Wednesday to extend Tuesday’s intraday recovery that had peaked upon filling the gap back up to Friday’s close. The pullback held its test of 18.00, but the rally can’t afford to hesitate extending.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight strength filled the gap back to Friday’s 151-28 open which itself had retraced back down to the 151-11 bounce limit. Wednesday morning soon reversed sharply from 152-06 back under 151-11 to 150-24.into negative territory. Its reaction is trying to recover 151-11.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s breakout had been largely retraced, albeit not entirely. But its overnight reversal gapped down at Wednesday’s open, not confirming Tuesday’s shallow breakout. The newly-adjusted 53.55 sell signal was itself tested.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows down to 2.64 overnight formed an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern that greeted Wednesday’s open by rallying back into Tuesday’s range. Extending higher to 2.75 during the morning was reversed back down under Tuesday’s low, leaving only a fresh high Thursday to reverse momentum back up.