Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 8, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s mid-morning EIA report is the only post-open report, which might enable it to be more influential than normally.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s spike low in reaction to Payrolls was retested immediately by Monday’s gap down, but not extended — certainly not on a closing basis — which would trigger a much deeper reversal down.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Two consecutive sessions of only overlapping the 1218.00 buy signal didn’t prevent trending up Sunday night or gapping up Monday morning. The breakout from a multi-session range would be confirmed by a second consecutive higher close Tuesday, targeting 1235.00 and potentially 1259.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday to test 17.63 resistance was extended higher intraday to fill the gap back up to Thursday’s 17.71 open. Extending higher through Tuesday’s close would target 18.18, and potentially also 18.70.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The bearish, distributive sealed top had already extended its bounce from Jan 3’s obligatory support. Friday’s failed bounce didn’t extend down any deeper, nor did it prevent gapping up Monday to test the 151-11 extreme bounce limit. Immediately reacting back down under 150-24 may be the only near-term path lower.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming Sunday night was barely recognized by Monday’s open. Reversing back down into negative territory hasn’t invalidated potential for extending to 55.25, but any further reaction down would start to suggest 54.25 resistance has held.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday to a fresh low at 3.00 didn’t extend down any deeper to the lower objective outstanding at 2.91. Rather, a bounce filled the gap back up to Friday’s 3.06 close. That attraction above is neutralized, so the decline should resume and be productive by Tuesday afternoon.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 6, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s JOLTS report is both high-profile, and often influential to price action.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/4/17) …
This weekend’s Saturday Review is comprehensive, yet concise. The current attack on retesting the prior week’s overnight highs has a likelihood of succeeding. It’s not 100%, but there should be only one exception that can prevent it Monday. Similarly, the current attack on probing new highs has a likelihood of being meteoric — in both directions — but with two exceptions. One exception that would point higher for longer, and one that would point lower, perhaps indefinitely. Setups that would be predictive of each resolution are described in detail. Enjoy!
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CMG, AMD, INTC, GOOGL, AMZN, GS, BAC, JPM, MS
02/04/2017 09:54:47 Mark Glezer: hi Rod
02/04/2017 09:55:10 Mark Glezer: how long do you think the upward can continue?
02/04/2017 09:59:01 Mark Glezer: Quick request – in light of your new morning schedule would it be possible to publish a brief update around 9:15 in case it narrows down your expectations from the First Trade and indicates the most likely open scenario? That would be very beneficial for those who are not in the room and do not see your Q&A at 9:15
02/04/2017 10:04:02 Mark Glezer: I mean publish on the blog
02/04/2017 10:04:22 Mark Glezer: no
02/04/2017 10:04:33 Mark Glezer: if you can of course
02/04/2017 10:06:26 Mark Glezer: could u repeat the downside targets if we somehow gap under 2283?
02/04/2017 10:06:53 Mark Glezer: no longer 48.5?
02/04/2017 10:10:19 Bill G: I think we may need a decent pullback (5%) to allow a subsequent rally to cause divergences in indexes at a final new high.
02/04/2017 10:11:04 Mark Glezer: BTV is talking about 4-5% pullback in Feb
02/04/2017 10:11:07 Bill G: Call it 3-5%
02/04/2017 10:13:31 Mark Glezer: thx much
02/04/2017 10:17:00 Mark Glezer: I do not know what can make CMG go higher if they keep losing revenue & there are much better alternatives to them around
02/04/2017 10:25:08 Bill G: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!