Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report initially dipped to touch the 1.0725 sell signal. Its reaction back up into positive territory above 1.0810 has formed a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern that would be triggered back under 1.0740.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down to Friday morning’s Employment Situation report only neutralized attractions below, testing the 1212.00 pullback limit, while nearly filling the gap back down to Wednesday’s 1207.50 close. Bouncing back above 1218.00 makes fresh highs likely at 1235.00 and potentially also 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday morning’s knee-jerk reaction down on the Employment Situation report touched lower prior highs near 17.25, and bounced back to unchanged. A retest of Thursday’s 17.70 gap open must be probed to put into play 18.18.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Attacking the 151-11 bounce limit to within 2 ticks after Friday morning’s Employment Situation report was reversed back down into negative territory, testing 150-00 and presumably resuming the decline.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing back up to 54.25 held again Friday, but wasn’t rejected, making fresh highs also likely to test 55.25. But only closing back under 53.50 would suggest momentum reversing down instead, targeting 49.05 and 47.80.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s bounce in reaction to the EIA report had still stopped short of signaling the decline’s momentum was lapsing. Trending back down overnight gapped down Friday to test 3.04, still targeting 2.91.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday must close higher to make fresh highs likely Friday. There is otherwise a vulnerability to reversing back down into the weekend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gaping up to fresh highs at 1227.50 was reversed back down to test the 1218.00 buy signal Thursday as support. Regardless of its resolution, the gap up will want to be revisited.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Thursday through 17.63 was retraced to almost fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s close. Regardless of the pattern’s resolution, the gap up will want to be revisited.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up to test the 151-11 maximum bounce limit Thursday was retraced to almost fill the gap back down to Wednesday’s 150-14 close. The decline has no excuse not to resume into the weekend, unless it isn’t going to resume, at all.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s close above 53.50 was extended Thursday morning to test 54.25 resistance. Its reaction down is trying to hold 53.50, whose break through the close would essentially reverse momentum back down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Thursday to Tuesday’s 3.12 close was reversed back up in reaction to the EIA report. Its complete retracement is not bearish, but neither does it yet qualify for completing a bottom.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up to prior highs that closed higher needed confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Gapping down Wednesday didn’t make that likely. Tuesday’s close above prior highs at 1.0815 still represents a gap wanting to be filled, and likely to be filled, until rejecting it by closing under a prior low like 1.0750.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip back under the 1206.50 sell signal by almost $7 avoided producing a new downleg, since it was recovered through the close. Closing back above Tuesday’s 1218.00 high would target 1235.00 and potentially also 1259.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s test of the 17.63 objective and its fulfillment of a fresh recovery high close, was not extended Wednesday. This doesn’t equate to rejecting it, and a higher close Thursday would still have room up to 18.18 or 18.72.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the corrective bounce Monday and Tuesday to 151-05 did not change whether it was only a correction. Sliding Wednesday morning back under Monday’s low to 149-23 greeted the FOMC Minutes with downside momentum, and after having expended a lot of buying pressure without gaining any traction for the effort.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Weak reactions to production and inventory reports offered another opportunity to resume the decline, which Tuesday’s open had otherwise isolated to Monday night. The session held a test of the 53.50 buy signal.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already having fulfilled the 3.12 objective Tuesday, closing back above 3.15-3.20 could signal the decline’s momentum has lapsed. Probing it overnight was nevertheless reversed by Wednesday’s open, and not recovered again.