Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A slightly lower low under 1.0690 overnight had recovered before Friday’s GDP and Durable Goods triggered a surge. The bounce should hold 1.0760 to maintain potential to break durably under 1.0690.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing lower overnight still recovered Friday to hover at or above 1184.50. Having held its support for two consecutive sessions, a corrective bounce to 1195.00 and possibly 1209.00 remains possible.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Piercing the 16.75 sell signal only slightly deeper before and after Friday’s open was rejected by a morning surge that filled the gap back up to Tuesday’s 17.15 close, keeping alive potential for an eventual fresh trend high close above 17.27.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday afternoon’s bounce was extended Friday, quickly testing 150-10, which contained the balance of the session. The bounce remains likely to be only temporary, before resuming its substantial decline.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s opening dip immediately pierced the new 53.20 sell signal, eventually breaking lower to the 52.50 sell signal that had narrowly avoided triggering Wednesday. Extending under 52.25 would confirm the next downleg is underway.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s failed breakout attempt above 3.40 was retraced a little deeper overnight, and then more so intraday Friday to test 3.25. Its reaction was substantial, closing back above the 3.34 sell signal, which remains in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Three days of fluctuating narrowly around last week’s high finally started behaving as if a Double Top had formed, gapping down and probing lower Thursday morning. The 1.0690 sell signal was tested, and a second consecutive lower close on Friday would reverse the trend down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down again Thursday probed under the 1195.00 sell signal to test 1184.00 support. A top has very likely formed, although the potential for a corrective bounce can’t yet be dismissed.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s dip tested the 16.75 sell signal that had been attacked Wednesday. Closing under it would be entirely credible for reversing the trend down, leaving no unfinished business above but an eventual higher close.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending even deeper overnight touched 148-30, piercing the year’s opening gap down that had recovered to close positive that day. There is no bullish reason for its retest, but its test did react up intraday to attack 150-00.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Bouncing Thursday attacked the range’s 54.25 upper-end, which allows the sell signal to be raised to 53.25. Closing above 54.25 could suggest a bigger bounce underway, but not reliable.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report wasn’t greeted from a position of strength. That didn’t prevent extending higher overnight to gap up above all prior relative highs, or extending higher intraday to 3.50. While closing above the 3.40 prior highs is a breakout, closing under the open’s gap up suggests that Friday won’t produce a second consecutive higher close. Higher highs would target 3.65. Otherwise, the weekend should be greeted reversing back down to 3.27 and to test 3.12.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A third consecutive session Wednesday fluctuating narrowly around last week’s high is more likely forming a Double Top, and less likely basing to launch a new upleg. So, any initial weakness would be likely to trend down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s dip to the 1209.00 pullback limit extended down overnight to gap down Wednesday and test the 1195.00 sell signal. No unfinished business above would be left outstanding.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday night’s dip attacked the 16.75 sell signal despite there likely being one more higher close outstanding in the pattern. Otherwise, having filled the gap Tuesday back up to last Wednesday’s close, no other unfinished business above would remain outstanding.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having retraced Monday’s corrective bounce up to 152-22 by closing Tuesday back under 151-11, Wednesday exploited the opportunity to resume the sealed top’s decline. The 149-08 low retraced all of the month’s gain, and attacked the first day’s gap down that had been recovered abruptly..

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The overnight dip in reaction to Tuesday’s post-close API report was recovered to retest 53.25 resistance, but reversed down again after EIA. Now the consolidation is free to resolve in either direction, likely down to 49.05 and 47.75.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ranging narrowly Wednesday is greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness. Tuesday’s high neutralized the attraction to a gap above, while a gap at prior lows down to 3.12 remains outstanding.