Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-higher-to-flat-again ranging Tuesday avoided confirming Monday’s fresh high close, which was already dubious as a breakout. Closing lower Wednesday would be likely to extend down, if not also to form a top.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having neutralized all unfinished above Monday, reacting down immediately Tuesday had room down to 1209.00 before suggesting momentum is already reversing down. The pullback limit was at least tested intraday, and probed after the close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t extend Monday’s bounce, and leaves outstanding again the eventual third higher close that was indicated by last week’s confirmed breakout.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday to 151-11 and extending down intraday prevented invalidating the sealed top pattern, and all but confirming that Monday’s rally was only a corrective bounce, if not also a last gasp before resuming the downleg.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s rally back into last week’s highs tested 53.25 resistance, but didn’t probe a fresh high intraday, so the pattern’s resolution remains tenuous. .

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday peaked short of the 3.41 level whose recovery would suggest a bigger bounce underway, despite being premature and leaving unfinished business below. Back under 3.23 would likely trigger another downleg underway targeting a retest of prior lows under 3.12.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s probe above last week’s highs didn’t extend higher intraday, as the session fluctuated narrowly around it. Closing higher Tuesday would qualify as a breakout, which might not be confirmed, but still should be avoided if the pattern is topping.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting last Tuesday’s 1214.30 gap up after Friday’s close didn’t neutralize its attraction, nor did retesting it Sunday night. Monday probed it and the prior high to attack 1220.00. No other unfinished business remains outstanding above, but that does not qualify as a sell signal.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A third eventual higher close remains outstanding from last week, which Sunday night’s rally was trying to resume. There is no bullish reason to back-and-fill again before extending higher.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s test of the 151-12 bounce limit was repeated Monday morning, probing it intraday up to 152-15. The top was already sealed, so closing back under 151-22 should suffice to resume the decline. Closing higher Tuesday would undermine the top pattern.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back down Monday didn’t reject Friday’s gap up, not any more so than Friday had rejected the two mid-week sessions consolidating below. Extending intraday would have qualified as rejection. Instead, the range remains intact, with no clarity on its next break either way.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight probed under the 3.19 gap that had remained outstanding. Holding its test is the first stop to bottoming, Closing above 3.25 is the second step, and the minimum requirement to begin reversing up.