Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/21/17) …
With all of last week’s peripheral events, an actual breakout from the ongoing range would have been plausible. Holiday-shortened week, afternoon Yellen appearance, inauguration, ECB & Draghi. But rather than being catalysts for a breakout, they kept alive volatility within the range, and otherwise kept alive the range’s boundaries.
Barron’s Streetwise column attributes the rally’s pause to awaiting actual legislation that reflects President Trump’s agenda, already having sufficiently discounted the hope for it. Anxiousness ahead of earnings may have been a culprit previously, but 10% of the S&P 500 companies have reported and about 75% have beat. Perhaps a bullish reaction to earnings is only delayed. Really? Then the delayed bullish reaction would be only obligatory — temporary before ultimately reversing down.
What could produce a break either way from the ongoing range? How will we know it’s happening, and how far could or should it travel before reversing back into the range? This week’s Saturday Review addresses these conflicting signals and their origins, how they offer contextual clues toward the eventual resolution, and specific influential price objectives.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
NFLX, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, AAPL, GS, S, MSFT, GOOGL (revisited), TXN
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request. (NOTE: There’s no review next weekend)… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having tested “higher prior lows” up to 1.0720, backing-and-filling is no longer needed before a break under 1.0605 would be credible for launching a downleg.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming back above 1205.00 would target filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 1214.00 open, if not also probing its 1218.50 overnight high.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
At least a third eventual higher close is required, and is in-play so long as 16.95 maintains its recovery. Back under 16.75 would target 16.15.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially bouncing slightly overnight was retraced to probe under Thursday’s lows down to 149-30. The second consecutive close under 151-12 essentially seals a top, next targeting 148-04.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday filled to Tuesday’s 53.25 close isolates the interim dip. But recovering resistance at 54.25 would allow filling gaps back up to 54.75 and 55.75. Almost any delay would reinstate the attraction below to 49.00 and 47.75.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning;s weakness didn’t retrace all of Thursday’s bounce, but the attraction down to 3.23 remained in-play. Its afternoon test now allows extending to 3.19.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 23, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s only econ report is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action.
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday morning’s weakness extended Wednesday’s reversal, attacking the 1.0605 sell signal. Its reaction up to 1.0665 can suffice as backing-and-filling to allow a break lower, so long as 1.0700 holds as resistance.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday night’s dip extended down intraday Thursday to test the 1195.00 sell signal. Meanwhile, its support can launch a bounce back above 1205.00 that fills Tuesday’s opening gap at 1214.00 and even retests its 1218.50 overnight high.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down overnight tested the 16.95 “lower prior highs,” which was probed intraday to also touch the 16.75 sell signal’s confirmation. Regardless, Tuesday’s confirmed breakout still requires at least an eventual third higher close.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s drop extended deeper Thursday to test relevant support at 151-12. Probed by a quarter-point intraday, closing under 151-12 essentially seals a top, while closing above it enables at least another corrective bounce first.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Choppiness around 51.50 persisted Thursday as the potential grew for extending lower to 48.20 and 47.00 before another rally leg could begin. Otherwise, back above 52.50 would start to suggest a bounce underway.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of weakness, but the day’s 3.25 low was still short of filling the gap outstanding at 3.23. Its reaction up filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 3.40 close, keeping alive the lower objectives. Back above 3.50 would target 3.65.