Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Already gapping up Thursday was premature for extending Wednesday’s recovery. In fact, the session didn’t extend any higher. And now Friday has also fluctuated narrowly. None of which actually reverses the trend back down, which would be triggered back under 1.0705.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break above 1187.50 had triggered a surge. Extending up to 1206.00-1207.00 Thursday was not optimal confirmation. Friday’s reaction down touched 1187.50 as support, which must hold to produce a fresh high targeting 1212.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s dip under 16.75 extended down to retest the original 16.60 sell signal whose test earlier this week had reacted up to retest the 16.95 high. Friday’s test reacted up to test 16.75, whose break would target 16.15.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday afternoon’s dive had held support, so an initial bounce was likely Friday, and it was likely to fail. The morning followed this path, testing resistance intraday up to 153-20 and reversing down sharply through the morning. into negative territory Friday afternoon to attack 151-12. A topping pattern has fully formed.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Dipping slightly Friday helped to further confirm that Thursday’s gap up had gained no traction. A fresh recovery high of some sort remains likely, but not likely to extend.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow ranging persisted Thursday without difference from Wednesday. The bounce to 3.40 has held for a second day, still likelier to fill gaps below than to extend higher first.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s wild intraday swing had recovered from probing under 1.0505 support to close back above 1.0605 resistance. But the resistance wasn’t a buy signal, so already gapping up to fresh highs Thursday is less bullish than first backing-and-filling. In fact, post-open action didn’t extend higher, and back under 1.0605 would start reversing the trend back down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging higher overnight extended higher Thursday to test 1207.00. The second consecutive higher close above a multi-session range now requires at least an eventual third higher close. That should visit 1212.00 or higher, before any durable decline would be credible.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s strength barely pierced last week’s 16.95 high, and didn’t close above it. That’s not bullish, and leaning bearish when compared to Gold surging. Back under 16.75 would now start to signal a deeper pullback underway targeting 16.15.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh highs overnight attacked 154-00 but held the 153-20/153-26 bounce limit intraday. Closing any higher would have dismissed almost any further near-term downside potential. Dipping deeper into the close filled the gap back down to Wednesday’s 152-24 close, and closed under prior lows to keep in-play a topping pattern.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing higher overnight to attack 53.25 was probed briefly intraday to prevent launching a new downleg. But the balance of the session did only range sideways instead of further extending Wednesday’s rally, making another downleg likely.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday reacted favorably to the morning’s EIA report, and pierced above 3.40. But that didn’t change whether the new had been greeted from a position of weakness, which prevented closing above 3.40, making a dip back down to 3.18 or 3.10 likely.