Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially gapping down Wednesday extended lower to test 1.0505-1.0525 support down to 1.0480 whose break would have targeted lower lows. But the morning finished wildly, surging back up to Tuesday’s 1.0585 close and higher to 1.0650. Momentum didn’t reverse up, and another test of 1.0505-1.0525 can’t be dismissed.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight to fresh highs testing 1191.00 was reversed down intraday Wednesday to attack 1174.50 down to 1177.00. The reversal was still recovered to fresh highs attacking 1200.00 which now allows room back down to 1180.50 before reversing momentum down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping Wednesday to 16.60 held instead of breaking, which prevented putting into play a test of 16.15. The dip was largely recovered, although not entirely back up to 16.95, so not yet dismissing another downdraft.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A fresh high was likely regardless of the pattern’s ultimate resolution, which Wednesday morning’s surge fulfilled up to 153-06/153-12. Closing back under  152-16/152-20 would now reverse the trend back down.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Wednesday wasn’t likely to extend higher, not until an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down on the EIA report filled the gap back to Tuesday’s 50.90 close. The balance of the morning rallied sharply, back up to Monday’s opening sell signal at 52.70. The pattern resembles a Pivot Reversal which can reverse up for multiple sessions unless rejected at Thursday’s open.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.Narrow sideways ranging didn’t extend Tuesday’s bounce, let alone trigger the 3.40 buy signal. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s fluctuation around 1.0605 leaves no reason to further delay breaking back under 1.0505-1.0525 to resume the decline, targeting at least the 1.0435 area.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing fresh highs Tuesday was retraced to close flat-to-lower at or under 1184.20, but not back under 1180.50 to resume the decline. Its break Wednesday would still be credible, especially if confirmed under 1174.50. Closing above 1187.50 would launch a new rally leg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retracing Tuesday’s fresh highs at 16.95 back under 16.67 would again target 16.15, and potentially deeper to compensate for the detour. Closing above 16.95 could marginalize sellers for a much larger rally.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Opening weaker Tuesday slid lower intraday, failing to confirm or validate Monday’s gap up that had failed already to extend higher intraday. Back under 152-02 and 151-24 would launch a new downleg targeting 151-12 and lower. Closing above 152-30 would instead resume the rally.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s break under the 52.70 sell signal was extended down almost immediately at Tuesday’s open to test 50.85. The second consecutive lower close isn’t a breakout, but does make at least a fresh intraday low likely

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Rallying overnight gapped back up Tuesday above 3.19 and extended higher intraday to 3.27, still short of the 3.40 buy signal. An attraction to filling the gap back down to Monday’s 3.10 close will inhibit the buy signal from triggering.