Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s initial blip-up was reversed down through the day. A pullback still has room down to 1.0505-1.0525 and then lower to the 1.0450 area where a more substantial rally leg can be launched, or else a new downleg can begin.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Immediately breaking under the 1180.50 sell signal Friday was initially retraced from testing 1172.00, which was retested into the close with potential for extending down to the 1160.00 area.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s decline to 16.40 leaves no “unfinished business above” while still having room below at 16.15, simply as a correction.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight tests of the 152-30 objective were followed by a knee-jerk reaction up to 153-09 on Friday morning’s Employment Situation report. Its reaction down extended through the day to within 4 ticks of its 151-15 objective.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s choppiness ultimately finished slightly higher, maintaining potential for filling the gap at Tuesday’s 54.80 gap up before a more durable downleg can begin.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s test of the 3.18 target held for a second consecutive session. Any early strength above 3.40 would be likely to extend in that direction intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s open gapped up to the 1.0505-1.0520 bounce limit and extended through Friday’s 1.0615 prior high. Closing higher would target 1.0755, and potentially higher, regardless of the recent low’s range requiring a retest as support.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Not already reacting down Thursday from Wednesday’s test of 1167.00 was instead likelier to extend the rally. Gapping up to 1174.00 extended higher through the morning to fulfill the next higher objective at 1184.20. Closing back under 1180.50 would signal momentum reversing down.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s sub-optimal confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout didn’t prevent extending higher Thursday to test 16.75. Not already extending higher at Friday’s open would be vulnerable to correcting back down under 16.20.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down sharply from an overnight test of the 151-12 target didn’t prevent another test intraday, or extending that test sharply higher to 152-22. Its 152-02 pullback limit must break to suggest the surge wouldn’t be confirmed, and back under 151-24 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, the rally could extend to test 152-26.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and extending higher through 53.45 “higher prior lows” and filling the gap back up to Friday’s 53.70 close was nevertheless reversed back down from 54.10 to 52.80 by Thursday morning’s EIA release. That didn’t reverse momentum down, as 53.70 was recovered. But 54.25 wasn’t recovered, which would have targeted filling the gap back to Tuesday’s 54.80 gap up.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA release wasn’t greeted from a position of strength, which would have doomed an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Regardless of its path, the resolution was down, fulfilling the 3.19 target which held while RSIs diverged positively, A bottom is free to form.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday helps to validate Tuesday’s post-open recovery, but that’s not an appropriate launch of an upleg. A little backing-and-filling from 1.0505-1.0520 is likelier than extending higher durably.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs were probed already before Wednesday’s open, fulfilling the 1167.00 target up to 1168.60. Being the fourth day of a 4th-day sequence, a fresh high close was unlikely. The close was within Tuesday’s range, but didn’t necessarily reject Wednesday’s gain, so not reversing down at Thursday’s open could extend the rally instead.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s surge to 16.55 was maintained throughout Wednesday. Although not extended, Tuesday’s breakout wasn’t confirmed.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday morning’s recovery had stopped pessimistically short of touching Friday’s 150-24 high. It was touched late Wednesday morning and later pierced by 2 ticks, still targeting 151-12.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday morning eventually firmed up to 54.20 resistance, with room for testing “higher prior lows” up to 54.55 before becoming vulnerable to another downdraft. EIA reports this week on Thursday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength. Wednesday morning returned back down to Tuesday’s 3.27 lows and then probed a couple of points lower, all but confirming Tuesday’s breakout and requiring at least an eventual lower close.